基于行政村尺度的武汉市乡村人口变化特征及其驱动因素研究

Characteristics and Driving Factors of Rural Population Change in Wuhan Based on Administrative Village Scale

基于武汉市实有人口动态监测调查数据、社会经济统计数据,利用地理空间统计、地理探测器等方法,以行政村为研究尺度,从3个不同年龄组(0~18岁、19~59岁、60岁及以上)探究2014—2018年武汉市乡村人口变化特征及其相关影响因素。研究发现:①武汉市乡村地区常住人口数量整体增长,但年龄结构组间差和组内差呈不断扩大趋势;其中,95.29%村庄的0~18岁人口都在减少。②乡村人口变化空间差异明显,整体上呈现空间集聚,在城市建成区边界、市区行政边界、重点集镇边缘等典型区域变化剧烈。③空间上人口平均增长率总体呈现“先缓降后缓升”趋势,峰值约在距市中心25~30 km和65~75 km之间,人口平均减少率则是“持续缓升”,在20~30 km处呈现最低值;受到主城区的“虹吸效应”最为明显的建成区周边乡村,人口的增减流动现象较为突出,是承接城乡人口转移的主要聚集区。④因子探测结果显示,各驱动因子在不同年龄组和距市中心不同距离表现的影响力均不同,“文体商服点数量”“农业总产值”“农村居民可支配收入”是影响乡村人口流动变化最广泛的影响因素。

This paper employs the data from Wuhan Migrants Dynamic Survey,socio-economic figures,geospatial statistics,Geodetector,and other techniques to explore the characteristics of rural population change in Wuhan from 2014 to 2018 and identify its influencing factors.The data were classified into three separate age groups(0-18 years old,19-59 years old,60 years old and above)based on administrative village.The research findings are as follows:1)In general,Wuhan experiences an increase in the number of permanent rural residents.However,the disparity in age structure between groups and within groups showed an upward trend.Within the cohort,the population aged 0 to 18 years old is declining in 95.29%of the villages.2)In Wuhan,there are distinct spatial differences in rural population change;and displaying an overall pattern of spatial agglomeration.In the region,urban built-up areas,urban administrative boundaries,the peripheries of key market towns,etc.,are shifting dramatically.3)The population shift from the city center to the suburbs follows a slow‘downwardupward-down’pattern.Moreover,the peak of average population growth rate is nearly about 25-30 km and 65-75 km.On the other hand,the average population decrease rate is continuously rising,and shows the lowest value almost between 20-30 km.This is the main area to undertake the transfer of urban and rural population,which is affected greatly by the‘siphon effect’of the urban area,as a result,the movement and change of population is more variable.4)The results of factor detection indicate that the influence of each factor varied across age groups and distances.In all distance ranges,meanwhile,‘number of cultural and sports commercial service points’‘total value of agricultural output‘and‘disposable income of rural residents’are the most influential public factors.