经济政策不确定性与上市公司违规:动因、机制与应对策略

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Fraud:Motivation,Mechanism and Feasible Strategies

经济政策是政府塑造企业外部环境的重要工具。本文关注宏观经济政策不确定性可能导致公司违规的动因、传导机制以及可行的应对策略。选取2006-2019年沪深A股非金融类上市公司数据,针对资本市场中不同公司违规类型和违规风险指标进行实证分析。研究发现,经济政策不确定性的提高会显著增大公司违规动机和严重程度,流动性约束和信息透明度是重要的传导机制,在经济政策不确定性冲击下,企业流动性约束加大、信息透明度下降,进而显著提高公司违规的概率。采用多种方法进行内生性问题处理后,这一结论依然成立。异质性分析表明,改善公司治理水平,提升财务柔性,增强经营能力,能够有效缓解经济政策不确定性引发的违规风险。上述结论为政府部门、市场主体和投资者稳定预期、防范风险提供了经验证据。

Economic policy is an important tool for the government to shape the external environment of enterprises.This paper focuses on the motivation,mechanism and feasible strategies that may result from the economic policy uncertainty.Based on the data of non-financial listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets from 2006 to 2019,this paper conducts an empirical analysis on the different types and risk indicators of violations of companies in the capital market.It is found that the increase of economic policy uncertainty will significantly increase the motivation and severity of corporate violations.Liquidity constraint and information transparency are important transmission mechanisms.Under the impact of economic policy uncertainty,the increase of liquidity constraint and the decrease of information transparency will significantly increase the probability of corporate fraud.This conclusion still holds true when a variety of methods are used to deal with endogeneity problems.Heterogeneity analysis shows that improving corporate governance,financial flexibility and operational capacity can effectively alleviate the risk of violation caused by economic policy uncertainty.The above conclusions provide empirical evidence for government departments,market subjects and investors to stabilize expectations and prevent risks.