学前教育与经济发展的非线性关系研究——基于学前教育财政投入的门限效应分析

Research on the Nonlinear Relationship between Preschool Education and Economic Development——An Analysis of the Threshold Effect Based on the Fiscal Investment

本文采用我国31个省(区、市)2007—2020年的年度面板数据,以人类发展指数(HDI)(1)框架下编制的中国学前教育发展指数作为核心解释变量,以学前教育财政投入占地区生产总值(GDP)比重作为门限变量,探讨学前教育与经济发展之间的非线性关系。研究结果表明:(1)从总体趋势看,学前教育促进了经济发展并存在双重门限效应,当学前教育财政投入占GDP比重在0.34%~0.42%之间时,学前教育对经济发展的促进作用最大。(2)从控制变量看,金融发展仅对东部地区经济发展存在显著正向影响,中部地区、西部地区经济发展更多地依赖城镇化水平的提高和产业结构优化,政府支出仅对东北地区经济发展存在正向影响但不显著。(3)从区域异质性看,东部地区和东北地区学前教育对经济发展存在学前教育财政投入单门限效应;中部地区、西部地区不存在门限效应,学前教育质量有待提高。

Based on the annual panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2007 to 2020,this paper compiles the preschool education development index under the framework of HDI,selects the ratio of fiscal investment in preschool education to GDP as the threshold variable,and analyzes the nonlinear relationship between preschool education and economic development.The research results show that:(1)for the overall trend,preschool education promotes economic development and has a double threshold effect.When the fiscal investment in preschool education accounts for 0.34%to 0.42%of GDP,preschool education plays a more prominent role in promoting economic development.(2)From the perspective of control variables,the level of financial development has a significant positive impact on the economic development only in the eastern region of China;the economic development of the central and western regions significantly depends on the improvement of urbanization and industrial upgrading;the level of public expenditure has positive but insignificant impact on the economic development only in the northeastern region.(3)From the perspective of regional heterogeneity,the threshold effect of preschool education on economic development has regional heterogeneity;there is a single threshold effect of fiscal input on economic development in northeastern and eastern regions;there is no threshold effect in the central and western regions of China,and the quality of preschool education in the these regions needs to be improved.