经济政策不确定性与全球价值链嵌入

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Global Value Chain Embedding

本文采用经济政策不确定性指数和世界投入产出表数据(WIOD),实证分析了经济政策不确定性对全球价值链嵌入的影响及传导机制。结果表明:经济政策不确定性的上升会提升国家或产业的全球价值链长度、前向参与度和后向参与度,但是会降低其在全球价值链体系中的分工地位。在克服内生性问题并经异质性检验后,该结论依旧稳健。进一步研究发现:缓解融资约束和提升创新能力作为中介渠道显著增强了经济政策不确定性对全球价值链的影响。门限分析结果表明:随着一国经济规模的扩大,其经济政策不确定性对全球价值链的影响将进一步增强。

This paper empirically investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on global value chains and analyzes the impact mechanism between the two using the World Input-Output Database(WIOD) released in 2016 to construct a cross-country panel data model consisting of 19 countries.The results show that a rise in economic policy uncertainty raises the GVC length,forward participation and backward participation of a country or industry,but lowers its division of labor position in the GVC system.The finding remains robust after overcoming the endogeneity problem and heterogeneity tests.Further study finds that alleviating financing constraints and enhancing innovation capacity as mediating channels significantly enhances the impact of economic policy uncertainty on GVCs.The results of the threshold analysis suggest that the impact of economic policy uncertainty on GVCs will further increase as the size of the economy increases.Compared with previous studies,the marginal contributions of this paper are mainly reflected in three aspects:firstly,this paper clarifies the logic of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on GVCs based on the intrinsic relationship between three dimensions of GVCs:location,backward and forward participation,and length,which avoids the possible omission of previous studies in the literature that only focus on one aspect of GVCs.Secondly,this paper uses different measurement data and measurement methods to conduct empirical analysis at the global level and China’s level,and comprehensively tests the research hypothesis,so as to make the conclusions of this paper more robust and reliable.Thirdly,the paper focuses on the impact characteristics and heterogeneity of the developed country sample,thus revealing the impact of economic policy uncertainty on different industries and global value chains in developed countries.This not only helps to reveal the impact path of economic policy uncertainty on GVCs,but also provides a theoretical and empirical basis for promoting China’s value chain reconstruction and positioning in the environment of elevated economic policy uncertainty.