基于VAR的新疆葡萄种植面积和产量预测

Prediction of Grape Planting Area and Yield in Xinjiang Based on VAR

运用向量自回归模型模型(VAR)对新疆维吾尔自治区葡萄种植面积和葡萄产量进行预测。结果显示,葡萄种植面积平均预测误差仅为2.28772%,葡萄产量平均预测误差为3.16478%。根据模型预测可知2021年新疆葡萄种植面积为215.4766·667hm^(2),葡萄产量为298.8776万吨。

VAR model was used to predict grape planting area and grape yield in Xinjiang Autonomous Region.The results showed that the average prediction error of grape planting area was only 2.28772%,and the average prediction error of grape yield was 3.16478%.According to the model prediction,the grape planting area in Xinjiang Autonomous Region will be 2154766·667hm^(2) and the grape output will be 298877600 tons in 2021.