基于MODIS数据的中国耕地时空变化及其影响因素

Spatio-temporal changes in cultivated land and their influencing factors in China based on MODIS data

基于 2001、2006、2011、2017 年 4 期 MCD12Q1 数据, 结合地貌类型、经济区划、干湿区划和降水数据, 利用GIS空间分析与统计方法, 研究中国不同地貌类型区、不同干湿区和不同经济区的耕地时空变化特征 . 结果表明, 2001-2017 年中国耕地面积总量减少约 7 142.28 km^(2), 其中新增耕地面积约 148 440.35 km^(2), 主要来源于林地和草地;流失耕地面积约 155 582.63 km^(2), 主要转化为林地、草地和建设用地 . 耕地变化主要发生在山地地区、湿润地区、北方干旱半干旱地区和东部地区;2001-2006 年中国耕地总量增加, 耕地变化强度最小, 速度最慢, 2006-2017 年中国耕地总量减少, 耕地变化强度逐渐变强, 速度逐渐变快 . 地貌、降水、国家政策和经济发展对 2001-2017年中国耕地变化产生了重要影响.

With a spatial analysis and the statistical method with ArcGIS, based on the data of MCD12Q1in 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2017, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of cultivated land in different geomorphological zones, climatic regions and economic areas in China were studied by combining geomorphological data, precipitation data and socio-economic data. The results showed that the total cultivated land areas in China decreased by about 7 142.28 km^(2)from 2001 to 2017. Among them, the newly increased cultivated land area was about 148 440.35 km^(2), mainly from forests and grasslands, and the lost cultivated land area was about 155 582.63 km^(2), mainly converted into forests and grasslands and construction land. The changes in cultivated land mainly occurred in mountainous, humid, arid and semi-arid areas in the northern and eastern areas. From 2001 to 2006, the total amount of cultivated land in China increased, the change intensity of cultivated land was the smallest and the speed the slowest. From 2006 to2017, the total amount of cultivated land in China decreased, and the change intensity became stronger and faster gradually. Landform, precipitation, national policies and economic development had an strong impact on the changes in cultivated land in China from 2001 to 2017.