二战后全球宗教多样性时空格局演变及收敛性研究

The spatio-temporal pattern evolution and convergence of global religious diversity after World WarⅡ

运用LISA时间路径、收敛检验等方法考察了二战后全球宗教多样性发展的空间分布特征、格局演变以及在此过程中的收敛性。研究发现:(1)二战后宗教多样性呈先快后慢的上升趋势,1945—2015年间多样性指数增幅达81.07%。宗教分类上则主要表现为基督教信仰者数量的持续下滑以及伊斯兰教信仰者数量的稳步上升。(2)LISA时间路径表明二战后全球宗教多样性具有较强的空间锁定效应,且其空间演化具有较强空间整合性。(3)二战后全球宗教多样性水平存在着显著的σ收敛与绝对β收敛,即全球、洲级层面上宗教多样性水平的内部差异都在逐步弥合,宗教多样性水平较高的地区对周边较低地区存在溢出效应。(4)二战后全球宗教多样性演化受土地覆盖类型、国力指数、民族数量、人均GDP、人口规模等因素共同作用而收敛于不同的稳态水平;从洲级层面上来看,各洲级单元收敛性对影响因素的敏感程度不同,体现了二战后全球宗教多样性演化显著的地域分异性。

Using the LISA time path and convergence test, this paper investigates the spatial distribution characteristics, pattern evolution and convergence of the global religious diversity after World War Ⅱ. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows:(1) Religious diversity showed a fast and then slow upward trend after World War Ⅱ, with an increase of 81. 07%. At the religious level, the main manifestations are the continued decline of Christianity and the steady rise of Islam.(2) The LISA time path indicates a strong spatial lock-in effect of global religious diversity after World War Ⅱ and a strong spatial integration of its spatial evolution.(3) There is significant σ-convergence and absolute β-convergence in global religious diversity levels after World War Ⅱ, i. e., the internal differences in religious diversity levels at both global and continental levels are gradually closing, and there are spillover effects from regions with higher levels of religious diversity to those with lower levels in the periphery.(4) The existence of conditionalβ-convergence in both global and continental units indicate that the post-WWⅡ global religious diversity evolution converges to different steady-state levels due to the combination of land cover type, composite indicator of national capability, number of ethnic groups, GDP per capita, and population size. At the continental level, the convergence of each continental unit is sensitive to different influencing factors, reflecting the significant geographical heterogeneity in the evolution of global religious diversity after WWⅡ.