中国对美国州层面直接投资时空演变与驱动因素探究--以得克萨斯州为例

Spatial-temporal evolution and driving factors of intrastate COFDI in the United States:A case study of Texas

改革开放以来,中国的外商直接投资经历了从“引进来”到“走出去”的发展历程。2016与2017年,中国对外直接投资(COFDI)流量与存量先后跃升至全球第二位,由外商直接投资吸收国转变为世界主要对外直接投资国之一。在中美双方经贸合作伙伴关系持续深入背景下,美国已成为中国对外直接投资首位东道国。投资是落于具体地域的,不同尺度地域投资环境的差异性是导致中国对美直接投资时空分异的重要原因。立足于中国(投资母国)视角,以美国州内各选区为研究地域尺度,利用空间自相关等方法,对美国典型州--得克萨斯州的中国对外直接投资的时空格局与演变特征进行了探讨,同时引入面板数据计量模型对COFDI在得州内各选区间投资驱动因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:①得州内COFDI存量持续增长,但阶段性特征明显;②得州内COFDI以国有企业并购为主,且主要集中在能源产业;③COFDI州内集聚程度较弱,局部选区间多呈现出相异属性集聚特征;④市场规模、劳工人数、交通通达性、华人移民数对COFDI具有正向促进作用,劳动成本、教育水平、税率、经济密度对COFDI具有不同程度的负向作用。研究结果可为中国政府、跨国企业在对美投资过程中提供决策参考。

Since the reform and opening up,China's foreign direct investment has experienced a development process from"bringing in"to"going out".In 2016 and 2017,the flow and stock of China's outward foreign direct investment(COFDI)rose to the second place in the world,and China has changed from a country absorbing foreign direct investment to one of the world's lead‐ing foreign investors.Under the background of deepening economic and trade cooperation be‐tween China and the United States,the United States has become the first host country for COF‐DI.The diversity and complexity of investment environment lead to the spatial and temporal dif‐ferentiation of COFDI in the United States.Using the methods of spatial autocorrelation analy‐sis,this paper investigated the spatial-temporal pattern and evolution characteristics of COFDI in Texas based on congressional district-level data.Then this study applied panel regression analy‐sis to examine Texas intrastate driving factors of COFDI.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The stock of COFDI in Texas continues to increase while the whole process can be divided into different stages according to growth rate.(2)Government investment and Cross-border Mergers Acquisitions(M&A)account for a large portion of COFDI and these related establish‐ments mainly distributed in energy industry.(3)Spatial concentration of COFDI is weak in Tex‐as while the local spatial autocorrelation analysis shows that opposite attribute aggregation exists between congressional districts.(4)Market size,labor force,traffic accessibility,Chinese immi‐grants have promoted COFDI in Texas while labor cost,educational attainment,total tax rate,economic density are negatively related to COFDI.The above conclusions can provide decisionmaking reference for Chinese government and multinational enterprises in the process of invest‐ment in the United States.