基于随机森林模型的辽宁省收缩城市未来发展趋势探究

由于城镇水平的高速发展,如何快速有效地遏制收缩城市的进程已然成为人们关注的重点。该文针对收缩城市的分类、影响收缩城市的重要因素和收缩城市未来发展趋势进行分析与讨论。通过对常住人口增长率、随机森林模型的计算,筛选出了2009—2020年辽宁省30个城市中的收缩城市与影响收缩的较大因素,将数据绘制成城市发展指数变化折线图,针对曲线的趋势,对各个收缩城市的未来发展进行合理的分析与预测。

Due to the rapid development of urban level, how to quickly and effectively curb the process of shrinking cities has become the focus of attention. This paper analyzes and discusses the classification of shrinking cities, the important factors affecting shrinking cities and the future development trend of shrinking cities. Through the calculation of resident population growth rate and Stochastic Forest Model regression model, we select the shrinking cities and the larger factors affecting contraction in 30 cities in Liaoning Province from 2009 to 2020, and draw the data into a line chart of urban development index. According to the trend of the curve, the future development of each shrinking city is analyzed and predicted reasonably.