小国水外交理论与湄公河国家在中美博弈背景下的战略选择

The Theory of Small State Water Diplomacy and Strategic Choices of Mekong Countries vis-à-vis Sino-U.S. Competition

在中美博弈日益加剧的背景下,湄公河地区成为双方的“兵家必争之地”与战略对抗前沿。在此博弈场中,水资源无疑关乎该地区的命脉,亦是两国博弈的焦点。鉴于既有水外交理论对小国水外交的理论构建与实践解释的不足,文章试图构建一个小国水外交理论框架,并借以分析湄公河国家在中美博弈背景下的水外交策略模式选择。小国水外交理论分为三个维度,从国家维度看,小国水外交的内在驱动因素包括“求生存”“求安全”“求尊重”由低至高三个不同层级;从流域维度看,小国水外交的决策形成因素包含河岸权益匹配度、水机制发展程度和共同身份强度;从环境维度看,小国水外交的外在触发因素包括大国的影响力度与大国间的博弈烈度。三个维度各因素的互动催生了“自主式水外交”“追随式水外交”“对冲式水外交”和“抱团式水外交”四种主要的小国水外交策略模式。文章基于小国水外交的理论框架,分析了湄公河国家水外交的要素构成及在中美不同博弈烈度下湄公河国家的水外交策略模式,即泰国借助“三河流域机制”开展的“自主式水外交”,老挝通过“水电开发”同中泰两国实现利益捆绑的“追随式水外交”,湄公河国家在中美水资源合作机制上采取“两面下注”的“对冲式水外交”,以及以湄公河国家推动湄公河委员会“本地化”和湄公河问题“东盟化”为代表的“抱团式水外交”。

As Sino-U.S.competition continues to intensify,the Mekong region has become a “battlefield” at the frontier of strategic confrontation between the two powers.A major focus of competition between the two states in the region is naturally its water resources,which are of critical strategic value.As the literature on the theory and practice of water diplomacy by small states is limited,this article attempts to construct a theoretical framework to explain the small state water diplomacy.It deploys this framework to analyze the policy choices made by Mekong countries vis-à-vis water resources when considering the broader context of Sino-U.S.competition.There are three dimensions of theory of small state water diplomacy.Interactions across these three dimensions shape four main types of small state water diplomacy strategies: “autonomous water diplomacy”,“aligned water diplomacy”,“hedged water diplomacy” and “collective water diplomacy”.Based on the theoretical framework for small state water diplomacy,this article considers the dynamics shaping the water diplomacy of Mekong countries and identifies the modalities that small states follow in their strategies considering different levels of intensity of Sino-U.S.competition.