阿富汗塔利班崛起与南亚地区秩序重构

The Rise of the Afghan Taliban and the Re-making of the South Asian Order

长期以来,阿富汗、巴基斯坦、印度形成了“三角博弈”的关系。塔利班重掌政权对于周边地区的外溢效应日渐显现,“三角博弈”在内部张力和外部压力的共同作用下开始呈现新的特征。在美国等外部力量撤出南亚的背景下,塔利班以独立和自主的姿态参与地缘政治博弈,巴基斯坦的地缘环境得到改善。南亚地缘政治和力量对比由此呈现出动态平衡的局面。塔利班的崛起刺激了南亚宗教极端主义和民族分离主义的发展,并使难民问题、毒品问题等进一步外溢到南亚地区,导致地区安全形势面临严峻挑战。安全问题与地缘政治相互作用,使上述非传统安全问题成为南亚国家进行传统地缘政治博弈的工具。如今,南亚地区的自主性增强,外部干预减弱。地区国家需要通过合作超越零和博弈,化解安全挑战。

Relations between Afghanistan,Pakistan and India have long been conceptualized as"triangular games".The Taliban’s return to power has resulted in the emergence of new dynamics vis-à-vis the"triangular games",especially as the impact has spilled over into Afghanistan’s neighboring countries,causing both internal and external pressures.As external powers such as the U.S.has withdrawn from South Asia,the Taliban has become increasingly independent and assertive vis-à-vis regional geo-politics.Meanwhile,Pakistan faces an improved geo-political environment as a result.These are both signs of a much more dynamic geo-political balance of power emerging in South Asia.While so,the rise of the Taliban has aggravated the development of religious extremism and ethnic separatism in South Asia,while also causing a series of challenges-especially refugees and drugs-to spill over into other parts of South Asia,prompting growing regional security challenges.The interaction between these security challenges and geo-political dynamics has resulted in non-traditional security challenges emerging as a key focus of traditional interstate competition in the region.At present,the South Asia region is becoming more autonomous as external interventions weaken.Countries in the region will need to transcend zero-sum thinking and cooperate towards resolving security challenges.