国际合法性竞争及缅甸看守政府外交布局的差序与摇摆

Competition over International Legitimacy and Differential Patterns and Inconsistencies in the Foreign Policy Moves of the Myanmar Caretaker Government

缅甸军方2021年接管国家政权并建立看守政府,外交出现了远近亲疏的差序布局,开始亲近俄罗斯、疏远西方。然而,这种亲疏关系不是一成不变,而是摇摆不定的,这体现在缅甸国内外多方互动过程中。缅甸军方接权后,执政者与反对派竞争的不仅是国内合法性,还有国际合法性,主要体现为竞争所代表国家的合法政府身份、海外利益与价值共识的承认与默认。在国际合法性竞争过程中,执政者在与挑战者不同强弱力量对比的情境下采取不同的策略,在左摇右摆状态下维持外交主动权。该布局主要表现为与俄亲而不近、与中印近而不亲、对东盟依而不靠、与西方疏而不离。

In 2021,the Myanmar army took over state power,establishing a caretaker government and recalibrating the country’s foreign policy to distance itself from the West and align itself more closely with Russia.While so,these relationships are by no means static,as complex interactions between Myanmar’s domestic actors and international stakeholders result in significant fluctuations in policy.After the Myanmar army took power,they clashed with opposition parties not only for domestic legitimacy,but also for international legitimacy.This manifests itself largely in competition between these parties over recognition and acceptance by states of legal governing status,overseas interests and values.In such processes of competition over international legitimacy,incumbents and their challengers will adopt different strategies depending on their relative strength.They will further seek to maintain diplomatic initiative by shifting positions regularly.This is manifested in the military’s warm but distant approach to Russia,its close but tepid approach to China and India,its careful following of but avoidance of dependency on ASEAN,and its inseparable position vis-à-vis the West.