欠发达地区县域经济时空分异及其驱动机制——以甘肃省为例

Temporal and Spatial Differentiation and Driving Mechanism of County Economy in Underdeveloped Areas:A Case Study of Gansu Province

以甘肃省为例,采用泰尔指数和莫兰指数等方法对2008—2018年甘肃省县域经济的时空差异进行分析,并基于面板数据构建了空间杜宾模型,从生计资本的角度出发对造成欠发达地区县域经济差异的驱动机制进行研究。结果表明,甘肃省县域经济的差异呈现出波动缩小的趋势,河西地区内部差异和区域间差异是造成差异的主要原因;从空间上看,甘肃省县域经济存在明显的二元结构,两极分化明显,“高-高”型的县域主要集中在河西地区以及兰州市周边,“低-低”型的县域主要为陇东南地区和高原边缘地区。空间杜宾模型估计结果显示,物质资本和人力资本的总效应为负,可能是造成甘肃省县域经济差异的主要原因;自然资本、金融资本和社会资本的总效应显著为正,其中金融资本和社会资本对县域经济具有协同溢出效应。

Taking Gansu province as an example,this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal differences of county economy in Gansu province from 2008 to 2017 by using Theil index and Moran index.From the perspective of livelihood capital,the driving mechanism of county economic differences in underdeveloped areas is studied by the spatial Dubin model which is constructed based on the panel data.The results show that the economic differences have a lower fluctuation among counties in Gansu province,and the internal and interregional differences are the main reasons for the differences in Hexi.From the spatial point of view,there are obvious dual structure and polarization in the county economy of Gansu province,counties with the“H-H”type of economy are mainly concentrated in Hexi and the surrounding areas of Lanzhou,while the“L-L”type counties are mainly in the south of Longdong and the marginal areas of the plateau.The spatial Dubin model estimates that the total effect of physical and human capital is negative,which may be the main reason for the economic differences of counties in Gansu province.The total effect of natural capital,financial capital and social capital is significantly positive,of which financial capital and social capital have a synergistic spillover effect on the county economy.