基于XGBoost模型的隧洞施工进度控制分析及预测研究

Control analysis and prediction research of tunnel construction schedule based on XGBoost model

隧洞施工进度控制是隧洞施工组织管理的重要组成部分。本文以滇中引水工程楚雄段伍庄村隧洞为例,利用XGBoost算法构建施工进尺、施工人数和施工总时间之间的关系,并根据各工序施工时间计算其重要度,分析控制隧洞施工进度的主要因素及施工总时间的预测研究。研究表明:立架、喷锚、超前和锁脚及测量四个工序是主要控制的因素,其中最主要的是立架工序。在施工时间控制中,提高立架工序的效率,保持喷锚、超前和锁脚及测量工序间的时间衔接,可以大幅缩短整个工程的施工总时间。使用XGBoost算法对施工总时间进行预测,平均误差(1.98%)较小,可为隧洞施工组织管理提供一种新的分析思路。

The control of tunnel construction schedule is an important part of tunnel construction organization and management.Taking Wuzhuang Village Tunnel in Chuxiong Section of the Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project as an example,in this paper,XGBoost algorithm is used to construct the relationship among the construction progress,the number of workers and the total construction time,calculate the importance degree according to the construction time of each procedure,and analyze the main factors controlling the construction progress of the tunnel and the prediction of total construction time.The research shows that the main control factors are the four working procedures of vertical frame,anchor spraying,advance anchor bolt and feet-lock bolt and measurement,among which the vertical frame working procedure is the most important.In the construction time control,the total construction time of the whole project can be greatly shortened by improving the efficiency of the vertical frame and keeping the time connection between anchor spraying,advance anchor bolt and feet-lock bolt and measurement process.Using XGBoost algorithm to predict the total construction time,the average error(1.98%)is small,which can provide a new analytical thinking for tunnel construction organization and management.