印度莫迪政府“对华产业替代”政策

On Modi Government’s Strategy on Indian Industrial Substitution for China

2020年以来,莫迪政府大力推进“对华产业替代”政策,以作为其“经济自主”“产业兴国”的重要路径。基于莫迪政府的产业政策实践,其“对华产业替代”政策至少由三大部分组成,即以“生产关联激励计划”为代表的产业政策、以全球范围内寻求“中国替代品”及签订新双边自贸协定为代表的经贸政策,以及以融入美西方创新链和价值链为代表的新经济政策。有利的国内政治生态、优越的地缘战略环境以及相对完备的产业发展基础为莫迪政府实施“对华产业替代”提供了有利条件。尽管如此,受限于印国内政治文化的保守性、美西方帮助抚慰印度的权宜性、经济全球化的逆动性以及中国产业政策守正创新的持续性,莫迪政府“对华产业替代”实效有限。但考虑到印度庞大的经济规模以及美西方等发达经济体的战略拉拢,莫迪政府的“对华产业替代”政策仍能对中国产业链建设构成干扰。

Since 2020,Modi government has promoted the strategy of Industrial Substitution for China as an important path of its Economic Autonomy and Industrial Rejuvenation.Based on Modi government’s industrial policy practices,its strategy of Industrial Substitution for China consists of three parts.The favorable domestic political ecology,the encouraging geostrategic environment and the relatively solid industrial foundation provide Modi government with conditions and confidence in implementing the strategy of Industrial Substitution for China.Nevertheless,due to the conservatism of India’s domestic political culture,the expediency of the U.S.in helping India,the reversal of economic globalization,and the sustainability of China’s industrial policy to keep the righteousness and innovation,Modi’s strategy of Industrial Substitution for China will only achieve limited success.The strategy of Industrial Substitution for China will inevitably cause disturbances to China and hence should better be addressed by China.