财政支农投入提升了农业碳生产率吗?——基于种植结构与机械化水平的中介效应

Does Financial Support for Agriculture Improve Agricultural Carbon Productivity?——Analysis on the Mediating Effects of Planting Structure and Mechanization Level

气候变暖已经成为人类眼前的威胁,农业生产引致的碳排放是温室气体的重要来源之一,而厘清农业碳生产率增长的逻辑有利于从源头处“保增长”与“促减排”。在理论分析财政支农投入对农业碳生产率影响机制的基础上,利用1994~2019年中国省级面板数据测算出农业碳生产率,并构建中介效应模型对财政支农投入影响农业碳生产率的作用机制进行实证检验。结果表明:(1)1994~2019年,中国农业碳生产率呈增长趋势,年均增速到达到2.40%,而且农业碳生产率的提高主要来源于技术进步的贡献。(2)财政支农投入对农业碳生产率的增长有显著的直接促进作用,而且财政支农投入还具有促进农业产出增加并抑制碳排放的作用,即具有“保增长”与“促减排”的功能。(3)财政支农投入还可通过农业种植结构和农业机械化水平的部分中介效应作用于农业碳生产率,两种渠道的中介效应占总效应的比重分别为16.58%和11.07%,经过内生性和稳健性检验后结果依然成立。据此,研究为财政支农投入能够实现“保增长”的同时兼顾“促减排”提供了经验性证据,并根据实证结果提出了相应的政策建议。

Climate warming has become an immediate threat to mankind,Carbon emissions from agricultural production constitute one of the important sources of greenhouse gases.In this context,clarifying the logic of carbon productivity growth in agriculture is conducive to “maintaining growth” and “promoting emission reduction” from the source.On the basis of a the theoretical analysis of the effect mechanism of financial support for agriculture on agricultural carbon productivity,this paper calculates the agricultural carbon productivity using the provincial panel data of China from 1994 to 2019,and constructs a mediation effect model to test the effect mechanism of financial support for agriculture on agricultural carbon productivity.The results show that:(1) From 1994 to 2019,China’s agricultural carbon productivity presented an increasing trend,with an average annual growth rate of 2.40%,The improvement of agricultural carbon productivity was mainly attributable to technological progress.(2) Financial support for agriculture has a significant direct promoting effect on the growth of agricultural carbon productivity.It also plays a vital role in promoting the increase of agricultural output and inhibiting the generation of carbon emissions,that is,it has the functions of “maintaining growth” and “promoting emission reduction”.(3)Financial support to agriculture can also affect agricultural carbon productivity through the partial mediating effects of agricultural planting structure and agricultural mechanization level.The mediating effects of the two channels accounted for 16.58% and 11.07% of the total effect,respectively,and the results remained valid after the endogeneity and robustness tests.Therefore,this paper provides empirical evidence for the role of financial support for agriculture in both “maintaining growth” and “promoting emission reduction”,and puts forward some policy suggestions based on empirical results.