“一带一路”贸易网络结构及其对区域经济联动的影响

Trade Network Topology of Regions along “the Belt and Road”and Its Impact on Economic Linkage

基于“一带一路”沿线国家2000—2019年贸易数据,利用社会网络分析法,廓清了沿线国家的贸易网络拓扑结构,发现“一带一路”贸易网络的整体密度增加,但呈现出非均质特征,中国、印度、新加坡等国家处于网络的核心节点位置,对网络的整体功能起着决定性作用。计量分析表明,“一带一路”贸易网络结构对区域经济联动具有显著影响,网络中心度高的国家,与他国的贸易往来更密切,经济联动程度也更高;凝聚子群分析揭示,经济联动具有分层聚类的特征,同一子群内的国家间经济联动水平更高。为此,应加强“一带一路”基础设施建设,提高区域内的贸易通达性水平;推进“一带一路”倡议,充分发挥沿线贸易网络核心国家的关键作用,以形成对区域内边缘国家的辐射带动作用,构建合作共赢、联动发展的区域经济生态。

Based on the trade data of countries along the “Belt and Road” from 2000 to 2019, this paper uses social network analysis to clarify the trade network topology of countries along the “Belt and Road”, and finds that the overall density of the “Belt and Road” trade network increases, but presents heterogeneous characteristics. China, India, Singapore and other countries are at the core node position of the network, which plays a decisive role in the overall function of the network. Quantitative analysis shows that the trade network structure of the “Belt and Road” has a significant impact on regional economic linkages. Countries with high network centrality have closer trade exchanges with other countries and have a higher degree of economic linkage. Cohesion subgroup analysis reveals that economic linkages have the characteristics of hierarchical clustering;the level of economic linkage between countries within the same subgroup is higher. Therefore, this paper argues that the “Belt and Road” infrastructure construction should be strengthened to improve the level of trade accessibility within the region. Promote the “Belt and Road” initiative, and give full play to the key role of the core countries in the trade network along the route, so as to form a radiating and driving role for the peripheral countries in the region, and build a regional economic ecology of win-win cooperation and joint development.