国家公园体制试点设立对野生动物肇事及农户适应性行为的影响

The Impacts of the Establishment of National Park System Pilots on Wildlife Incidents and Farmers’ Adaptive Behaviors

本文基于浙江省4个县(市)480户农户的问卷调查数据,采用双重差分模型(DID)分析了钱江源国家公园体制试点设立对野生动物肇事和农户适应性行为的影响,并从人力资本水平、收入水平与农业收入占比等视角揭示了农户适应性行为存在的异质性。结果表明,国家公园体制试点设立之后,农业受灾面积及受灾损失金额均显著增加。与之前相比,农户选择适应性行为的概率并未发生显著变化,但行为结构发生显著变化,其中选择致伤性预防行为的概率显著减少,而选择非致伤性预防行为的概率显著增加。同时,高人力资本组与高收入组农户更倾向于选择预防行为。

Based on the questionnaire survey data of 480 farmers from 4 counties and cities in Zhejiang Province, this study adopts the difference-in-differences model(DID) to analyze the impact of Qianjiangyuan National Park system pilot on wildlife incidents and farmers’ adaptive behaviors, and reveals the heterogeneity of farmers’ adaptive behaviors from the perspective of human capital level, income level and agricultural income proportion. The results show that after the establishment of the national park system pilot, the agricultural disaster area and the amount of disaster losses have increased significantly. Compared with the previous years,the probability of farmers choosing adaptive behaviors has not changed significantly, but the behavior structure has changed significantly. Among them, the probability of preventive behaviors adoption has decreased significantly, while the probability of non-injury behaviors adoption has increased significantly. At the same time, the groups of farmers with a high level of human capitaland high income levelare more inclined to adoptpreventivebehaviors.