高保障高收入--农业保险保障水平的收入效应研究

High Security and High Income?:Research on the Income Effect of Agricultural Insurance Level

提高保障水平是农业保险政策改革的重要举措,高保障能给农户带来高收入吗?本文基于湖北、江西、四川以及云南四省1290户农户数据,通过分析农业保险保障水平与农业收入的倒U关系,以及保障水平与非农收入的门槛效应,讨论了一个“折弯”的总收入曲线。研究结果表明,首先,保障水平的提高在门限值(0.740)之前可以有效促进农户收入增长,但其增长效应在越过门限值之后消失,从而高保障并不必然带来高收入;其次,保障水平对农业收入存在倒“U”型影响,对非农收入的影响则存在门槛效应,在倒“U”型拐点之前,农业收入的增长为总收入提供了增长效应,越过拐点后,“增长的非农收入”拉平了“下降的农业收入”,形成整体上“折弯”的总收入曲线;最后,保障水平对农户收入的影响存在异质性,相比于规模经营户,小农户收入曲线的“折弯”点出现更早。

Improving the security level is an important measure of agricultural insurance policy reform.Can high security bring high income to farmers?Based on the data of 1290 households in Hubei, Jiangxi, Sichuan and Yunnan provinces, this paper analyzes the inverted U relationship between the level of agricultural insurance and agricultural income, and the threshold effect between the level of agricultural insurance and non-agricultural income. The results show that: firstly, the increase of security level can effectively promote the growth of farmers’ income before the threshold value(0.740),but its growth effect disappears after the threshold value is exceeded, so high security does not necessarily bring high income;secondly, security level has an “inverted U” effect on Agricultural income, while it has a threshold effect on non-agricultural income, which is at the “inverted U” inflection point Before, the growth of agricultural income provided a growth effect for the total income. After crossing the inflection point, the “increased non-agricultural income” flattened the “decreased agricultural income”,forming a “bending” total income curve on the whole. Finally, the impact of security level on the income of farmers is heterogeneous, and the “bending” point of the income curve of small farmers appears earlier than that of scale operation households.