基于媒体报道食品安全事件的贸易冲击与市场转移效应

Trade Shocks and Market Switching Effects of Food Safety Incidents Based on Media Coverage

利用2008—2017年国内主流媒体报道数据及与51个贸易伙伴的面板数据,以猪肉进出口为例,采用扩展的引力模型分析了基于媒体报道的食品安全事件的贸易冲击与市场转移效应。研究发现:(1)近年来频繁曝光的猪肉食品安全事件带来的负面冲击是导致中国猪肉贸易逆差拉大的一个重要原因,猪肉食品安全事件每增加1%,中国猪肉出口额下降约0.23%,而猪肉进口额上升约0.18%;(2)中国猪肉进出口也会受到贸易伙伴食品安全事件的影响,没有食品安全事件的贸易伙伴对中国猪肉食品安全事件的反应程度比卷入食品安全事件的贸易伙伴更强烈,从而使中国对卷入食品安全事件的贸易伙伴的猪肉进出口额反而更高。这意味着,食品安全事件虽然会对一国出口产生负面冲击,但其他国家的食品安全事件可带来市场转移机遇,出口商可通过市场替代减轻损失。

Using domestic media reports data from 2008 to 2017 and panel data with 51 trading partners, an extended gravity model is employed to analyze the trade shocks and market switching effects of food safety incidents reported by the media on Chinese pork exports and imports.The results show that:(1) The negative impact of the frequent exposure to pork safety incidents in recent years is one of the most important reasons for the widening of Chinese pork trade deficit.For every 1% increase in domestic pork safety incidents, the value of Chinese pork exports will fall by about 0.23% on average, while pork imports will increase by about 0.18% on average.(2) Chinese pork imports and exports will also be affected by pork safety incidents from trading partners.Trading partners without pork safety incidents reacted more strongly to Chinese pork safety incidents than trading partners involved in pork safety incidents, which in turn made Chinese pork imports and exports to trading partners involved in food safety incidents higher.The policy implication of this paper is that although food safety incidents will harm a country’s exports, food safety scandals from other countries can bring opportunities for market switching, so exporters can mitigate losses through market substitution.