人工智能技术与劳动力迁出决策——来自全国流动人口动态监测调查的经验证据

Artificial Intelligence and Labor Migration Decision:Evidence from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey

以人工智能为核心的新兴技术革命正不断渗透我国劳动力市场,微观劳动力个体面临地区智能化技术冲击时的迁出决策是关乎区域经济高质量发展的重要现实性问题。利用网络爬虫方法获取的城市层面人工智能专利数据,结合2014—2018年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,实证考察了人工智能技术对劳动力迁出决策的影响。研究结果表明,人工智能技术会显著提高劳动力迁出决策的概率。机制分析表明,人工智能技术会通过减少就业机会和降低工资收入水平两种传导路径引发劳动力迁出决策。进一步分析表明,人工智能技术主要偏向引致中低技能、从事常规性职业、过往迁移时间较短、农业户口和非国有企业劳动力迁出。因此,政府应着力加强劳动力权益保护和再就业,积极开展劳动力职业培训,减少技术性失业诱发的劳动力外流。

The emerging technology revolution with artificial intelligence(AI)as the core has been influencing China’s labor market,and labor migration decision under the impact of regional intelligent technology is an important practical issue concerning the high-quality development of regional economy.Based on the city-level AI patent data obtained by a web crawler and the data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS)from 2014 to 2018,we empirically examine the impact of AI on labor migration decision.The findings show that AI significantly increases the probability of labor migration decision.Mechanism analysis shows that AI induces labor migration decision through reduced employment opportunities and wages.Further analysis shows that the labor migration effect of AI is more significant for labors with medium and low-skill,routine jobs,short migration time and agricultural households,and those in non-state-owned enterprises.Therefore,the government should strengthen labor protection and re-employment and promote vocational training for workers,so as to mitigate the labor outflow caused by technological unemployment.