政策协同与经济增长:基于“一带一路”沿线国家的分析

Policy Coordination and Economic Growth:Evidence from Countries along the“One Belt,One Road”Initiative

“一带一路”倡议是中国深化对外开放和鼓励企业“走出去”的新战略,也是在新常态下推动经济结构调整的积极战略部署。贸易和资金的联通离不开中国和“一带一路”沿线国家的资本项目开放政策。本文重新构建资本项目开放指标,采取动态面板广义矩估计和双重差分法,从政策协同的视角分析资本项目开放的经济效应。研究结果表明,政策协同对于资本项目开放发挥经济效应十分重要。当“一带一路”沿线国家采取的资本流入管制放松与中国的资本流出管制放松措施相匹配时,推进资本流入管制放松能够促进经济增长。此外,“一带一路”倡议显著降低了沿线国家的资本流入管制程度,中国的资本流出管制放松在区域内具有政策传递效应。

The“One Belt,One Road”(OBOR)Initiative is a new development strategy for China to deepen opening-up and foster globalization.It has also become a constructive form of strategic planning to achieve structural change and economic transformation.Capital account liberalization is indispensable for cross-border trade and investment.This paper attempts to establish a new capital account openness index for countries along the OBOR routes;it adopts the generalized method of moments for dynamic panel data and uses the DID technique to analyze the economic effect of capital account openness from the perspective of policy coordination.The results of the study reveal that policy coordination is quite important for the growth effect of capital account openness.When the deregulation measures on capital inflow control adopted by countries along OBOR routes coordinate with those taken by China on capital outflow control,promoting deregulation of capital inflows can ultimately promote economic growth.The OBOR Initiative also promotes the deregulation of capital inflow control in countries along OBOR routes and deregulation of China’s capital account shows a policy spillover effect.