基于MaxEnt模型的中国鲜食杏气候适宜性区划

Climatic suitability regionalization of fruit apricot in Chinese mainland based on the MaxEnt model

基于中国鲜食杏地理分布数据和1981—2020年全国2303个气象站点的逐日气象观测数据,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和GIS技术,在综合考虑热量条件、水分条件、光照条件、耐受极端天气/灾害程度、地形条件等自然要素的基础上,确定了影响中国鲜食杏地理分布的主导环境因子,根据自然断点分级法将中国鲜食杏气候适宜性划分为高适宜区、较适宜区、次适宜区和不适宜区4个等级,厘定不同区划等级的主导环境因子阈值。结果表明:影响我国鲜食杏地理分布的主导环境因子为年降水量、海拔、春霜冻概率和最冷月平均气温;鲜食杏种植的适生区主要集中在华北、黄土高原、西北和西南地区,与我国鲜食杏地理标志产品的产地吻合较好,其中鲜食杏的高适宜区集中分布在我国的黄土高原、黄河故道和环渤海湾地区。本研究可为合理规划我国鲜食杏生产布局提供科学依据。

To identify the dominant environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of fruit apricot cultivation, we collected the distribution data of fruit apricot cultivation in Chinese mainland and daily weather data from 2303 weather stations from 1981 to 2020. We selected several natural factors affecting the potential distribution of fruit apricot cultivation, including heat condition, water supply condition, sunshine duration condition, tolerance to extreme weather/disaster, and topographic condition. The Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt) model and GIS technology were jointly used. By using natural break point classification method, the suitability of climate regions for fruit apricot cultivation was divided into four grades: unsuitable, sub-suitable, suitable, and optimal. The threshold values of dominant environmental factors for each suitability grade were determined. The results showed that annual precipitation, altitude, probability of spring frost, and mean temperature of the coldest month were the dominant environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of fruit apricot cultivation in Chinese mainland. The suitable areas for fruit apricot planting were mainly concentrated in North China, Loess Plateau, Northwest China, and Southwest China, which is consistent with current geographical locations with successful fruit apricot cultivation. The optimal areas for fruit apricot cultivation were mainly distributed in the Loess Plateau, along the Ancient Yellow River Course, and the Bohai Bay area. Our results can provide a scientific basis for rational apricot cultivation planning in China.