三峡库区典型流域生境质量时空演变特征与情景模拟

Spatiotemporal variations and scenario simulation of habitat quality in a typical basin of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

经济社会快速发展推动区域土地利用格局发生了深刻转变,对生境质量和生物多样性产生了巨大影响。准确评估和预测土地利用变化背景下生境质量的时空演变特征和未来发展趋势,对区域生物多样性保护和可持续发展具有重要意义。以三峡库区典型流域大宁河流域为研究区,基于2000年、2010年和2018年3期土地利用数据,分析了土地利用及生境质量的时空演变特征,并结合土地利用预测模型模拟了2034年自然发展、经济优先、生态保护3种情景下土地利用和生境质量的格局特征。结果表明:2000—2018年水田、旱地、草地面积呈总体下降的趋势,而林地、城镇用地、农村居民点、其他城镇用地呈整体增加趋势,揭示了城镇化建设和生态保护修复并存的土地利用变化格局;2000—2018年大宁河流域生境质量呈先降低后增加的趋势,整体格局相对稳定,但局部地区生境质量仍逐渐恶化,且两极化趋势明显;在未来情境中,2034年大宁河流域生境质量表现为生态保护情景>自然发展情景>经济优先情景,生态保护情境下流域局部和整体生境质量均得到显著提升,未来大宁河流域生物多样性保护和区域可持续发展规划中应更加注重统筹经济发展和生态保护之间的关系。

Rapid socioeconomic development has greatly altered regional land use patterns, habitat quality, and biodiversity. Accurately assessing and predicting spatiotemporal variations and future development trends of habitat quality is therefore essential for regional biodiversity protection and sustainability. Based on land use data of 2000, 2010, and 2018, we analyzed spatiotemporal variations of land use and habitat quality in the Daning River Basin of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. We further simulated the patterns of land use and habitat quality in 2034 under three scenarios(natural development, economic priority, and ecology protection) by applying a land use simulation model. The results showed that the area of paddy field, dryland, and grassland had decreased from 2000 to 2018, while that of forest, urban land, rural residential area, and other construction land displayed an increasing trend, indicating a pattern of land use change with the coexistence of urban construction and ecological restoration. Habitat quality showed a trend of decreasing first and then increasing. The entire pattern was relatively stable from 2000 to 2018, but habitat quality for the local areas tended to be decreased and a polarization trend was obvious. In the future scenarios, habitat quality in 2034 would vary in the following order: ecology protection>natural development>economic priority. In the ecology protection scenario, both the local and entire habitat quality would be significantly improved. Thus, future biodiversity protection and regional sustainability planning should pay more attention to coordinating the relationship between economic development and ecological protection.