中国粮食绿色生产技术空间特征和溢出效应研究

Study on Spatial Characteristics and Spillover Effects of Grain Green Production Technology in China

粮食绿色生产技术是助力农业可持续发展的重要手段,也是巩固粮食安全、实现乡村全面振兴的有效措施。本研究基于非期望产出的超效率SBM模型和Malmquist全要素生产率指数模型,对中国26个主要产粮省份稻谷、小麦和玉米的绿色技术进步指数进行测度分析,并通过Moran’s I指数和空间Durbin模型进一步探讨了其空间相关性和溢出效应。结果显示:研究期内各省稻谷绿色技术进步指数平均值相差较小且均呈现技术进步加速状态,而部分小麦和玉米种植省份总体呈绿色技术进步减缓状态。空间分布特征显示,东北、黄河中游等粮食主产区绿色技术进步明显,西南地区绿色技术进步则相对缓慢。进一步空间相关性分析得出,稻谷和小麦绿色技术进步的高峰和低谷期呈现集聚型,玉米则呈现离散型特征;其中,稻谷绿色技术进步加速的主导省份集聚在东北地区、黄河中游、北部沿海和南部沿海地区;小麦绿色技术进步变化的主导省份集聚在东北地区、黄河中游以及西北地区。不同因素的溢出效应结果显示,劳动力资本素质、种植规模和农业经济水平对稻谷和小麦绿色技术进步具有显著溢出效应;而各因素均未对玉米绿色技术进步产生显著溢出效应;溢出效应的差异是造成稻谷和小麦绿色技术进步空间特征与玉米不同的重要原因。

Green food production technology is an important means to help the sustainable development of agriculture,and it is also an effective measure to consolidate food security and achieve comprehensive rural revitalization.Based on the super-efficient SBM model of unexpected output and Malmquist total factor productivity index model,this study measured and analyzed the green technology progress index of rice,wheat and corn in 26 major grain-producing provinces in China,and further discussed its spatial correlation and spillover effects through Moran's I index and spatial Durbin model.The results showed that:During the study period,the average difference of green technological progress index of rice in each province was small,and all showed an accelerated state of technological progress,while some wheat and corn planting provinces showed a slow state of green technological progress.Spatial distribution characteristics show that the green technology progress in major grain producing areas such as Northeast China and the middle reaches of the Yellow River is obvious,while the green technology progress in Southwest China is relatively slow.Through further spatial correlation analysis,it is found that the peak and trough of green technology progress of rice and wheat are clustered,while that of corn is discrete.Among them,the leading provinces with accelerated green technology progress of rice are concentrated in northeast China,the middle reaches of the Yellow River,the northern coastal areas and the southern coastal areas;The leading provinces of wheat technological progress and change are concentrated in Northeast China,the middle reaches of the Yellow River and Northwest China.The spillover effects of different factors show that labor capital quality,planting scale and agricultural economic level have significant spillover effects on green technology progress of rice and wheat;However,all factors have no significant spillover effect on the progress of corn green technology.The difference of spillover effect is an important reason that the spatial characteristics of green technological progress between rice and wheat are different from those of corn.