信用货币创造、投资发展模式与M2/GDP

Credit Money Creation,Investment Development Mode and M2/GDP

“中国货币之谜”提出至今已近三十年,当前仍缺少一个被普遍接受的解释。已有研究可以分为货币化说、高储蓄说、低效货币供给说与高投资说等解释。本文基于贷款创造存款理论,指出政府驱动银行将信贷资源集中于国企进行投资为特征的政府驱动型投资发展模式是解释“中国货币之谜”的关键。大量存款由贷款产生,在投资过程中流入居民部门成为储蓄,最终形成了较高的M2/GDP值,高储蓄是投资过程的结果而非原因。这一解释在扩展高投资说的同时修正了高储蓄说,有效补充了货币化说,但不支持低效货币供给说。相应的格兰杰因果关系检验与双向固定效应回归结果对此提供了支持。本文的研究结果表明,中国较高M2/GDP值的形成表面上源于个体经济决策与货币发放,本质上是政府驱动型投资发展模式的结果,体现出带有中国特色的投资融资过程。

“The Money Puzzle of China”still lacks a consensus,since put forward nearly 30 years.Existing explains can be divided into theory of monetization,high savings,inefficient money supply and high investment.Based on the theory of credit money creation,this paper points out that the investment development mode characterized by the government promoting commercial banks to concentrate credit resources on state-owned enterprises is the key to explain the“The Money Puzzle of China”.A large number of deposits are generated by loans,which flow into the residential sector as savings in the investment process and eventually form a higher M2/GDP value.High savings are the result of the investment process rather than the cause.This explanation expands the theory of high investment,modifies the theory of high savings,effectively complements the theory of monetization,but does not support the theory of inefficient money supply.The Granger causality test and bidirectional fixed effect regression results provide support.The formation of China’s higher M2/GDP is ostensibly caused by individual economic decisions and money issuance,but in essence is the result of government-driven investment development mode,and reflects the investment and financing process with Chinese characteristics.