中国农村居民食用植物油消费量影响因素的分析

Analysis of influencing factors of edible vegetable oil consumption in rural China

为了研究我国农村居民食用植物油消费的影响因素,利用1982—2020年我国农村居民人均食用植物油消费量、农村居民收入、城市化水平等宏观经济数据,构建协整模型和误差修正模型,分析多种因素对我国农村居民人均食用植物油消费量的长期和短期影响,并就消费量的四段异常波动进行成因分析。结果表明:我国农村居民人均食用植物油消费量与农村居民收入、城市化水平、消费习惯之间存在协整关系;协整模型中城市化水平的弹性系数为0.30,农村居民收入的弹性系数为0.11,消费习惯的弹性系数在0.70以上;误差修正模型中只有消费习惯通过t检验,其弹性系数在1.1以上;突发事件是造成农村居民人均食用植物油消费量短期剧烈波动的主要原因,但这又会随着经济社会的稳定和消费习惯的黏性而逐渐回归正常。长期来看,城市化进程中农村居民消费习惯的改善和收入的提高对其食用植物油消费具有明显促进作用;短期来看,消费量的变动主要受消费习惯影响,而与城市化水平和农村居民收入的相关性不强。基于上述结论,就当前农村地区食用油摄入过量问题,提出注重城市化建设质量、加快乡村振兴实施步伐、引导农村居民形成健康消费习惯的建议。

In order to study the influencing factors of rural residents′edible vegetable oil consumption in China,per capita consumption of edible vegetable oil of rural residents,rural residents′income,urbanization level and other macroeconomic data from 1982 to 2020 in China were used to built the co-integration model and error correction model to analyze the long-term and short-term effects of the various factors on per capita consumption of edible vegetable oil of rural residents in China.In addition,the causes of four abnormal fluctuations in consumption were analyzed.The results showed that there was a co-integration relationship between per capita consumption of edible vegetable oil of rural residents and rural residents′income,urbanization level,consumption habits.In the co-integration model,the elasticity coefficient of urbanization level was 0.30,the elasticity coefficient of rural residents′income was 0.11,and the elasticity coefficient of consumption habits was above 0.70.In the error correction model,only consumption habits passed the t-test,and its elasticity coefficient was above 1.1.In addition,the analysis of causes indicated that emergencies were the main reason for the short-term drastic fluctuations in per capita consumption of edible vegetable oil of rural residents,which would gradually return to normal with the stability of economic society and the stickiness of consumption habits.In the long run,the improvement of consumption habits and income of rural residents in the process of urbanization could significantly promote their consumption of edible vegetable oil.In the short term,the change of consumption was mainly influenced by consumption habits,but not strongly correlated with urbanization level and rural residents′income.Based on the above conclusions,in view of the problem of excessive edible oil intake in rural areas,suggestions were put forward to pay attention to the quality of urbanization construction,accelerate the implementation of rural revitalization,and guide rural residents to form healthy consumption habits.