基于改进的灰色马尔科夫模型的集装箱吞吐量预测

Container Throughput Prediction Based on Improved Grey-Markov Model

集装箱吞吐量是港口生产经营的重要指标,也是制定港口资源分配及港口物流发展战略的重要依据,准确预测吞吐量对港口发展以及促进区域经济的提高至关重要。本文基于灰色马尔科夫模型,并选取2006—2021年宁波舟山港集装箱吞吐量进行预测,为进一步优化精度,提高预测的可信度,从而引入等维新息模型对灰色马尔科夫模型优化,使2种算法互补,经精度检验结果表明组合模型提高了43.6%的预测精度,预测结果能为宁波舟山港相关部门进行港口建设与政策等提供依据。

Container throughput is an important indicator of port production and operation,and also an important basis for formulating port resources allocation and port logistics development strategy.Accurate prediction of container throughput is crucial to port development and regional economic improvement.In this paper,based on the Grey-markov model,and USES 2006-2021,Ningbo Zhoushan port container throughput forecast,for further optimization accuracy,improve the credibility of prediction,so as to introduce such reform rate model of Grey-markov model optimization,make the two complementary algorithm,the accuracy of test results show that the combined model improves the forecast accuracy of 43.6%,The prediction results can provide the basis for Ningbo Zhoushan port related departments to carry out port construction and policy.