中国西部城市高质量发展研究:评价分析与政策启示

Research on High-Quality Development of Western Chinese Cities:Evaluation Analysis and Policy Implications

本文从发展的基本面、社会成果和生态成果三个维度构建了高质量发展指标体系,并测度了西部地区2004—2018年82个地级以上城市的高质量发展水平。研究显示,样本期内西部地区高质量发展水平波动较为频繁。西部整体和西南、西北地区的核密度估计分布曲线均呈现出“先左移—后右移”的演变过程。西部城市高质量发展的基尼系数在2004—2010年呈现整体下降态势,2010—2013年出现波动,2013—2018年又呈现上升趋势,西部城市高质量发展总体差距先降后升。方差分解表明,西部地区城市高质量发展的主要结构性来源始终是基本面,其差异贡献率的均值为43.1%,生态成果贡献率的均值为31.4%,社会成果占比仅为25.5%,西部城市推进高质量发展的重心仍在经济领域。

This paper constructs an index system of economic high-quality development in three dimensions:fundamentals of development,social outcomes and ecological outcomes,and measures the level of economic high-quality development of 80 cities above prefecture level in the western region from 2004 to 2018.The study shows that the level of high-quality economic development in the western region fluctuated more frequently during the sample period.The estimated distribution curves of kernel density in the western region as a whole,as well as in the southwest and northwest regions,show a“left-then-right”evolution process.The Gini coefficient of economic quality development of western cities shows a decreasing trend from 2004 to 2010,fluctuates from 2010 to 2013,and then shows an increasing trend from 2013 to 2018,and the overall gap of economic quality development of western cities show“decreases-then-increases”.The variance decomposition shows that the main structural source of high-quality economic development in western cities is always the fundamentals.The mean value of its differential contribution is 43.1%.The mean value of the contribution of ecological outcomes is 31.4%,and the proportion of social outcomes is only 25.5%.The focus of western cities to promote high-quality development is still in the economic field.