中国消费内生动力:收入增长下的涓滴效应研究

The Endogenous Power of Consumption:The Trickle-Down Effect under Income Growth

深入了解涓滴效应对居民消费的影响,促进消费视角下质的有效提升和量的合理增长,对稳定中国经济具有重要的政策含义。本文利用1992~2016年城镇住户数据构建动态面板,基于欧拉方程和工具变量法,从收入分布视角探讨同一城市内高收入家庭对中低收入家庭的消费涓滴影响。结果显示:在可支配收入增长的条件下,收入最高20%家庭消费每增长1%引致中间60%家庭消费增长0.050%~0.057%,中间60%家庭消费每增长1%引致最低20%家庭消费增长0.185%~0.231%,涓滴效应主要从收入高分位向低分位传递影响;通过地位寻求动机下的向上攀比,消费涓滴效应显著提高中间收入家庭的设备品、教育、通信与娱乐用品、居住、食品等消费分类支出和比重,提升高品质消费品的拥有率;促进居民持久收入增长和稳定消费品供给价格是发挥涓滴效应的关键因素,而收入差距的持续扩大会降低涓滴效应的影响。充分发挥居民家庭尤其是中间收入群体的消费涓滴效应,在多重不利环境下激发消费内生动力,有利于增强国内大循环的内生动力和可靠性,推动全体人民共同富裕的现代化。

The invention and inflow of new technology and goods have changed the lifestyle of high-income households, and provide a reference for studying the consumption choices of middle-income households. Rational consumers make consumption decisions to maximize utility based on permanent income. When permanent incomes increase to a higher level, consumers primarily compare themselves to those with higher income or economic status, who purchase higher-end goods and services(Drechsel-Grau and Schmid, 2014). Upward-looking benchmarking by middle-income households drives cascades in expenditures from high-income to middle-income households. Higher social status groups have advantages with respect to marriage, information sharing, and opportunities. These are not distributed in the market. Owning goods that represent a higher social status or market value leads to a greater competitive advantage in the marriage market for middle-income households. The “Big Three, ” consisting of three key items in a Betrothal gift or a dowry, is a standard index used to measure a family’s living standard and consumption level. The “Big Three” gradually upgraded from watches, bicycles, and sewing machines in the 1970s;to color televisions, refrigerators, and washing machines in the 1980s;and finally to cars, commercial housing, and leisure travel and vacations in the early 21st century. This paper uses the Urban Household Survey from 1992 to 2016 to construct a dynamic data panel. Based on the Euler equation, it discusses the consumption trickle-down effect on middle and low-income households. The results show that when consumption by the 20% of households with the highest income increases by 1%, it is associated with an increase in consumption by the 60% of households with a middle level of income by 0.050~0.057%. The consumption trickle-down effect of the middle 60% is associated with an increase in the consumption of the bottom 20% of households by 0.185~0.231%. There is a significant trickle-down effect on the consumption growth of urban households in China, however, the impact is mainly reflected in the consumption transmission from the high-income group to the low-income group. When the two groups are far away from each other with respect to income distribution, the actual impact is very small. Using the consumption visibility index and the elasticity of income demand, this study finds that the consumption trickle-down effect has a positive impact in a rapidly developing economy. In this setting, a household can experience a long-term growth in permanent income. The trickle-down effect mainly increases the consumption of normal goods by middle-income families;these are items with a lower visibility index, including food, a residence, household equipment, education, entertainment products, entertainment service, and communication tools. The trickle-down effect does not increase the expenditure of jewelry and watches, which are typical high-visibility goods. At the same time, the trickle-down effect leads to a decrease in the share of food consumption among middle-income households, and significantly increases the proportion of equipment, education, communication and entertainment, housing, food, and other consumption categories. Furthermore, the effect also increases the ownership rate of high-quality consumption goods, due to upward comparisons due to status-seeking motivation. These findings provide an important perspective to better understand the consumption trickle-down effect, which extends existing research on social interaction effects. The growth rate of disposable income among different income groups has not been uniform. The growth rate for middle-income households has gradually become lower compared to high-income households. As a result, the income gap continues to widen. Middle-income households take a longer time to accumulate wealth, so the consumption trickle-down effect also weakens. Under the trickle-down effect, a large middle-income group creates an expected large-scale consumption market, which needs a matching level of production scale and efficiency. The trickle-down effect doesn’t cause a significant rise in the price of household consumption goods, but it does increase the unit value of those goods. This means that the trickle-down effect has a positive impact on the supply level and technology level of household consumption goods.