碳达峰背景下发电行业降碳潜力分析——以甘肃省为例

Carbon reduction potential analysis of power generation industry under the background of carbon peak——Take Gansu Province as an example

甘肃省发电行业结构优化调整和节能降碳密切相关,发电行业仍是全省产业转型升级和绿色低碳循环发展的关键行业。通过重点分析“十三五”以来甘肃省发电行业现状,采用“自下而上”的分析方法,设定了基础情景、适度情景、强化情景3种发展情景,按照降碳潜力核算模型测算了不同情景下发电行业降碳潜力,预计2025年适度情景下的降碳潜力为2 628.50万t CO_(2),同时提出了发电行业节能降碳的主要对策,以期为落实“双碳”目标做出积极贡献。

The structure optimization and adjustment of power generation industry in Gansu Province is closely related to energy saving and carbon reduction, and the power generation industry is still the key industry in the industrial transformation and upgrading of the province, as well as the key industry in the development of green and low-carbon cycle.This study focused on the analysis of the status quo of power generation industry in Gansu Province since the 13th Five-Year Plan period(2016—2020).The “bottom-up” analysis method was adopted to set three development scenarios, including basic scenario, moderate scenario and enhanced scenario, and calculated the carbon reduction potential of power generation industry under different scenarios according to the carbon reduction potential accounting model.It is estimated that in 2025,The carbon reduction potential under moderate scenario is 26.285 million t CO2.Finally, the main countermeasures of energy saving and carbon reduction in power generation industry were put forward in order to make positive contributions to the implement of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.