新冠疫情前后人民币汇率的影响因素分析

Analysis of the Factors Influencing the RMB Exchange Rates before and after the COVID-19 Pandemic

人民币汇率走势波动直接影响我国的对外经济活动,研究人民币汇率变动的影响因素具有重要理论意义和现实意义。本文首先使用RT集成学习方法对比分析了各变量对人民币汇率的影响程度差异;其次以Eviews7.2为工具,建立多元线性回归模型探究人民币汇率变动的影响因素;再次,2019年后新冠疫情对人民币汇率的影响,本文加入了一个虚拟变量;最后,结果证明货币供应量、国家外汇储备及中美CPI差值是影响人民币汇率的主要因素。

The fluctuation of Renminbi exchange rates directly affects China’s foreign economic activities,and it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the influencing factors of the fluctuation of RMB exchange rates.This article first uses the method of RT ensemble learning to compare and analyze the differences of influence of each variable on RMB exchange rates;secondly,we use eviews 7.2 as the tool to establish a multiple linear regression model to explore the influencing factors of the fluctuation of RMB exchange rates;in terms of the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on RMB exchange rates at the end of 2019,this paper adds a dummy variable.The results show that the currency supply,national foreign exchange reserves,and the CPI difference between China and the United States are the main factors influencing the RMB exchange rates.