中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的时空特征及区位选择研究

Research on Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Location Choice of China’s Direct Investment in Countries along the“Belt and Road”

“一带一路”倡议提出以来,我国对外直接投资不断增长,逐渐打开了地缘经济新格局,促进了我国走向国际化。本文基于历年来我国对“一带一路”沿线国家对外直接投资的存量数据,引入空间统计方法中的热点分析,综合分析我国对外直接投资的时空特征及投资热点演变,并结合2007—2018年的面板数据,运用固定效应逐步回归模型分析了政治因素对我国对外直接投资的影响。研究表明:我国对外直接投资分布不平衡存在空间相关性,并且地缘政治风险对对外直接投资有直接的负面影响,即中国倾向投资地缘政治风险较高的国家。

Since the introduction of the“Belt and Road”initiative,China’s foreign direct investment(FDI)has been growing,which gradually opens up the new geo-economic landscape and pushes China’s pace toward internationalization.Based on the stock data of China’s FDI to countries along the“Belt and Road”,this paper introduces the hot topic analysis in spatial statistics to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of China’s FDI and the evolution of investment hot topics and uses the panel data from 2007 to 2018.The influence of political factors on China’s FDI is analyzed by the fixed-effect stepwise regression model.The study shows that there is a spatial correlation between the unbalanced distribution of China’s FDI and the geopolitical risks have a direct negative impact on FDI,i.e.,China tends to invest in countries with higher geopolitical risks.