美国对华加征关税对中国林产品出口的贸易阻碍与贸易偏转效应分析

Trade Destruction and Trade Diversion Effect Under the Influence of US Additional Tariff on China’s Export of Forest Products

文中首先整理2018-2019年美国对华加征关税的各轮产品清单及相关加征关税税率,检验美国对华实际关税税率变化对于中国各省(区、市)林产品出口表现的影响,包括上述关税变动冲击所产生的贸易阻碍和贸易偏转效应。研究发现:1)在美国对华加征关税清单公布和生效后,短期内美国对华实际关税税率的上升阻碍了中国林产品对美出口贸易,但中方恢复较快;2)美国对华实际关税税率的上升引发了中国林产品对其他主要贸易伙伴出口偏转规模的显著增加;3)上述贸易偏转效应显著存在于我国东部和中部地区。据此,建议我国政府部门与行业协会加强信息传递与风险预警能力,注重开发替代市场以保障林产品出口安全,并充分利用“双循环”发展机遇,加快实现林产品的国内产业生产转移及销售拓展。

The paper collates all the lists of product subject to additional tariff which were released by the USA against China in 2018-2019, and collects the related additional tariff rates, in a view to examining the impact of the changes in the applied tariff rates by the USA on the province-level export performance of forest products from China, including the trade destruction effect and trade diversion effect. Results show that: 1) The rise of the USA’s applied tariff rates has caused trade destruction effect on China’s export of forest products to the United States in a short period of time after the lists were announced and took effect, but China’s export recovers quickly;2) The rise of the applied tariff rates has significantly increased the trade diversion effect on China’s export of forest products to China’s other major trading partners;and 3) the above trade diversion effect holds in the eastern and central regions of China. Therefore, it is suggested that the government and industry associations in China should strengthen the ability of information delivery and risk early-warning, explore alternative international markets to ensure the export security of forest products, and take the opportunity of the “dual circulation” development to accelerate domestic industrial relocation and market expansion of forest products.