双重冲击下俄罗斯能源战略调整与中俄能源合作议程更新

Russia’s Energy Strategy Adjustment and the Update of the Sino-Russian Energy Cooperation Agenda under the Dual Impact

当前,全球“零碳竞赛”的长周期效应和俄乌冲突的短周期效应叠加,催化全球能源格局加速演变。本文分析了在气候政治和地缘政治的双重冲击下,俄罗斯能源战略调整的“市场+权力”双重逻辑。在市场逻辑主导下,俄罗斯能源战略调整的重心围绕细化脱碳目标、推动能源价值变现和过渡性转型展开。在权力逻辑主导下,俄罗斯将激化市场博弈抵御制裁、利用能源杠杆分化美欧协同、借助“天然气卢布”重塑贸易格局、推动合作“重心东移”以维护市场领导地位作为战略调整的核心。通过对中俄能源合作进行案例分析,本文提出两国能源合作既存在开发进程提速、单向依赖上升和辐射效应增强的内生动力,也面临竞合关系的重构,以及政策性风险和技术性障碍增多的外部挑战,需要将危机预案制定、合作重心优化和模式探索作为中俄能源合作议程更新的重点。

At present,the long-term effect of the global "Race to Zero Campaign" and the short-term effect caused by the Ukraine crisis are catalyzing the evolution of the global energy landscape.This paper analyzes the dual logic of "market + power" in the adjustment of Russia’s energy strategy under the impact of climate politics and geopolitics.Under the dominance of market logic,Russia’s energy strategy adjustment focuses on refining the decarbonization goals,resource realization and transitional transformation.Under the dominance of power logic,Russia intensifies the market competition as counter sanction measure,uses energy leverage to divide the coordination between the United States and Europe,reshapes the trade pattern by imposing the "natural gas Ruble",and promotes the eastward shift of cooperation as the core of its strategic adjustment.Through the case analysis of Sino-Russian energy cooperation,this paper proposes that the Arctic energy cooperation between the two countries enjoys the endogenous driving force of accelerated development,increased conditional dependence and enhanced inclusive effect,but also faces the collapse of balancedcomplementary competition and cooperation relationship,increasing technical obstacles and policy risks as external challenges,the formulation of crisis management plans,optimization of priorities,innovation on the type and model of cooperation could be further promoted as the update of agenda for Sino-Russian energy cooperation.