对冲的迷思:结构压力、战略认知与2010年以来日本对华外交战略研究

The Myth of Hedging:A Study of Structural Pressure,Strategic Perception,and Japan’s Diplomatic Strategy Toward China Since 2010

2010年是二战后中国首次超过日本成为世界第二大经济体的历史节点,中日在国际政治中的身份和地位都发生了关键转换,这种变化对日本产生了重要冲击,日本对华外交战略的特征和形态及其战略抉择背后的国际政治逻辑逐渐引起了学界关注。本文以新古典现实主义为理论基点,并在此基础上搭建新的分析模型,提取出结构压力和战略认知两大核心变量,结合2010年以来日本对华外交战略的发展历程,从体系、国家、个人三个分析层次阐释了日本对华外交战略产生及演变的机理。通过前景—威胁理论的分析可以得知,自2010年以来,日本并没有在中美两国之间对冲,结构压力的增强和战略认知的变化促使其采取了明确且坚定地追随美国制衡中国的国家战略,获得美国安全保障超过了日本对中日经贸合作收益的期待。中美战略竞争升级和中国的迅速发展刺激了日本所谓的地缘恐惧感,中国在处理中日关系中协调日本“对冲”空间存在的条件并不充分。在中国推动高质量共建“一带一路”及践行全球发展倡议的进程下,中日需进一步增强战略互信,求同存异,努力构建中日关系的良性发展。

2010 was a special year when China overtook Japan as the world’s second-largest economy for the first time after World War II.The identities and statuses of China and Japan in international politics have undergone a critical shift,and this change has had an important impact on Japan.The characteristics and shape of Japan’s diplomatic strategy toward China and the international political logic behind its strategic choices have gradually become a major concern of the academia.This study takes neoclassical realism as the theoretical base and builds a new analytical model based on it.By extracting the two core variables of structural pressure and strategic perception,it explains the mechanism of the emergence and evolution of Japan’s diplomatic strategy toward China from three levels of analysis :system,state,and individual,taking into account of the development history of Japan’s diplomatic strategy toward China since 2010.The analysis of prospect-threat theory shows that since 2010,Japan has not hedged between China and the U.S.The increase in structural pressure and changes in strategic perceptions have prompted it to take a clear and firm national strategy of following the U.S.to check and balance China,and obtaining U.S.security guarantees has outweighed Japan’s expectations for gains in China-Japan’s economic and trade cooperation.The escalation of strategic competition between China and the United States and China’s rapid development have stimulated Japan’s so-called geopolitical fears,and the conditions for China to coordinate Japan’s hedging space in its approach to China-Japan relations are not sufficient.In the process of China’s promotion of high-quality "Belt and Road" and Global Development Initiative,China and Japan need to further enhance strategic mutual trust,seek common ground while reserving differences,and strive to build a benign development of China-Japan relations.