一般均衡理论视角下绿色金融的减排效应研究:从模型构建到实证检验

Research on the Emission Reduction Effect of Green Finance from the Perspective of General Equilibrium Theory:Modeling and Empirical Test

绿色金融是否能够有效促进碳减排?其内在机制是什么?在碳达峰与碳中和的时代目标下,科学、严谨地回答这一问题意义重大。本文将经典理论与最新前沿相结合,提出绿色金融能够通过促进绿色技术进步帮助碳减排的理论假说。构建带有碳排放约束并内生减排技术进步的一般均衡模型,解释了绿色金融通过支持技术进步实现碳减排的内在机制,并提供了基于中国省级面板数据的实证证据。本文的研究从理论和实证两个维度论证了绿色金融对碳减排的影响,指出支持技术创新是绿色金融发挥减排效应的重要机制。因而在发展绿色金融的过程中,注重金融资源的实际用途,有效支持减排技术更新,比单纯限制高排放行业的金融资源获取更加有效。同时,理论分析表明,绿色金融并非越多越好,而是存在最优规模。在积极推动绿色金融发展的同时,依然需要注重统筹规划,避免金融“过绿”带来不必要的损失。

Can green finance effectively promote carbon emission reduction? What is its internal mechanism? With the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,it is of great significance to answer this question scientifically and rigorously.The theoretical hypothesis is put forward that green finance can help carbon emission reduction by promoting the progress of green technology.This general equilibrium model with carbon emission constraints and endogenous emission reduction technology progress in the paper explains the internal mechanism of green finance to achieve carbon emission reduction by supporting technological progress,and provides empirical evidence based on China’s provincial panel data.The impact of green finance on carbon emission reduction from both theoretical and empirical dimensions is demonstrated,and it is pointed out that supporting technological innovation is an important mechanism for green finance to exert its emission reduction effect.Therefore,in the process of developing green finance,it is more effective to focus on the practical use of financial resources and effectively support the updating of emission reduction technologies than simply restricting the acquisition of financial resources in high-emission industries.At the same time,theoretical analysis shows that more green finance is not necessarily better,but there is an optimal scale.While actively promoting the development of green finance,it is still necessary to pay attention to overall planning to avoid unnecessary losses caused by financial “over-greening”.