双层博弈视角下所罗门群岛的对华外交政策转向

Solomon Islands’ Foreign Policy Turn towards China from the Perspective of Two-level Game

广袤的南太地区已成为中美战略博弈的新场域。与美国在“印太战略”下推行的“排他性地区主义”不同,中国倡导人类命运共同体指引下的“开放性地区主义”,并积极强化与所罗门群岛等太平洋岛国的关系。索加瓦雷政府2019年再次上台后,逐步推行对华外交政策转向,从中所建交,到警务合作,再到蓝色经济合作,这一趋势正在不断加强。所罗门群岛政府的这一外交转向,是在与国内、国际两个层面的复杂博弈中逐渐形成的。在国内层面,所罗门群岛面临着总理与议会、政府与民间、中央与地方等多维较量;在国际层面,所罗门群岛也必须同时处理好与中国大陆、美澳等国以及台湾当局的利益和互动。在双层博弈的过程中,总砝码最终向着对华友好合作的方向倾斜。同时也应看到这一转向并非一了百当,而是充斥着内外的双重风险,需要积极应对。

The vast South Pacific region has become a new field of strategic competition between China and the United States. Different from the “exclusive regionalism”pursued by the United States under the “Indo-Pacific Strategy”,China advocates the“open regionalism”guided by Community with a Shared Future for Mankind,and actively strengthens its relations with Pacific Island countries such as Solomon Islands.After the Sogavare government came to power again in 2019,it gradually implemented a shift in its foreign policy towards China,from the establishment of diplomatic relations with China,to police cooperation,and then to blue economic cooperation. This trend is constantly strengthening. This diplomatic turn of Solomon Islands government was gradually formed in the complicated game with domestic and international levels.At the domestic level,there are multidimensional contests between the Prime Minister and Parliament,between the government and the people,between the central government and the local government,etc. At the international level,Solomon Islands must also handle the interests and interactions with Chinese mainland,the United States,Australia as well as the Taiwan authorities. In the process of the two-level game,the total weight finally leans towards the direction of friendly cooperation with China. At the same time,it should be noted that this turn is not a one-size-fits-all phenomenon,but is full of internal and external risks,which need to be actively dealt with.