期刊文献+

技术投资、公共教育投入与少子化 被引量:1

Technological Investment,Public Educational Expenditure and Low Fertility Rate
原文传递
导出
摘要 我国的少子化进程可能难以逆转,在这种背景下,如何安排技术投资和公共教育投入以实现经济和居民福利的可持续增长是我国要面临的长期挑战。文章基于内生技术进步和人力资本的一般均衡世代交叠模型,研究发现:只要政府的目标是最大化代表性消费者的终生效用,则总和生育率下降就会推动技术投资和公共教育投入的提高,但能否推动经济持续增长及居民福利提高则受到抚育成本占总财富比例的影响。数值模拟表明:在当前我国的生产模式下,若该比例低于45%则可以推动经济持续增长,反之会减缓经济增长;若该比例低于20.53%,则可以提高居民福利,反之会降低居民福利。在当前的生育率水平下,经济增长的条件满足而福利水平上升的条件可能不满足,即可能不存在能够同时实现居民福利持续上升以及经济可持续增长的生育率区间。另外,总和生育率轻微上升至1.6左右可以促进经济的持续增长和人均产出的提高,但当期代表性消费者的终生效用会由于无法享受经济增长的红利而降低。因此,在当前的生产模式下,政府应采取可控的生育刺激政策以轻微地提高生育率,并持续优化养老保障体系以增加代际间的联系,同时优化产业结构、转变教育模式、优化R&D研发模式以逐渐转变社会生产模式。文章为研究新时代人口结构状态下,少子化进程对技术投资和公共教育投入的影响路径提供了理论依据,为调节技术投资和公共教育投入的中介效应及制定合理生育率目标提供了模型支撑。 No matter from the objective trend of fertility rate,the subjective wishes of residents,the cost conditions of raising offspring,or the size of the first marriage population,the declining trend of China’s fertility rate may be difficult to reverse. Therefore,how to reasonably arrange technology investment and public education investment under a given fertility rate to keep economic growth is the main challenge China is currently facing. Starting from the government’s role as a central planner of the tax administrator and an investor in educational and technological infrastructure,we analyze the impact of changes in the fertility rate on government investment in technology and public education by constructing a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations. Using equilibrium of technology investment and public education investment as an intermediary,we further analyze the impact of fertility rate on wage,capital return rate,output,and lifetime utility of agents.The results show that: As long as the government’s goal is to maintain the lifetime utility of the agent,low fertility may increase technology investment and education expenditure,but whether it can promote economic growth and residents’ welfare depends on the ratio between birth & education costs and total wealth.Simulation shows that: Under the current production pattern,if the ratio is lower than 45.0%,low fertility may promote economic growth and vice versa;if the ratio is higher than some particular value,the process of low fertility may promote residents’ welfare and vice versa. Under the current fertility rate,the condition of keeping economic growth is satisfied but keeping residents’ welfare is not. That is,no specific fertility rate range can simultaneously raise residents’ welfare and keep economic growth. A slight increase in the fertility rate to about 1.6 can promote sustained economic growth and per capita income,but the welfare of agents would be harmed because of not being able to enjoy the dividends of economic growth. Therefore,under the current production pattern,the government should adopt a controllable fertility stimulus policy to increase the fertility rate slightly,optimize the pension system to increase inter-generational connections,and optimize the industrial structure,the educational pattern,and the way of R&D research to gradually transform the social production pattern. This paper provides a theoretical basis for studying the impact path of the process of low birthrate on technology investment and public education investment under the state of population structure in the new era,and provides numerical support for adjusting the mediating effect of technology investment and public education investment and formulating reasonable fertility rate goals.
作者 黄志国 王博娟 陈孝伟 Huang Zhiguo;Wang Bojuan;Chen Xiaowei(Sci-Tech Academy,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;Research Centerof Hundsun,Hangzhou 310053,China;School ofFinance,NanKaiUniversity,Tianjin 300350,China)
出处 《财经研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2022年第12期136-150,共15页 Journal of Finance and Economics
关键词 技术投资 公共教育投入 经济增长 居民福利 少子化 technological investment public educational expenditure economic growth residents’welfare low fertility rate
  • 引文网络
  • 相关文献

参考文献11

二级参考文献159

同被引文献45

引证文献1

;
使用帮助 返回顶部