Dynamic analysis of agricultural green development efficiency in China: Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors

Green development of agriculture is important for achieving coordinated and high-quality regional development for China. Using provincial data from 1990 to 2020, this work explored the dynamics of agricultural green development efficiency of 31 provinces in China, its spatiotemporal characteristics, and its driving factors using a super-efficiency slacks-based measure(Super-SBM), the Malmquist productivity index(MPI), spatial autocorrelation, and a geographic detector. Results showed that the overall agricultural green development efficiency showed a U-shaped trend, suggesting a low level of efficiency. Although a gradient difference was visible among eastern, central, and western regions, the efficiency gap narrowed each year. Technological progress and efficiency both promoted agricultural green development efficiency, especially technological progress. Agricultural green development efficiency had significant spatial aggregation characteristics, but Moran’s Ⅰ result showed a downward trend from 2015 to 2020, indicating a risk of spatial dispersion in the later stage. The provinces with high agricultural green development efficiency were mainly concentrated in the eastern region, while those with low efficiency were concentrated in the central and western regions. Agricultural green development efficiency was influenced by various factors, which showed differences according to time and region. The impact of the labor force’s education level and technological progress increased during the study period, and significantly facilitated agricultural green development efficiency in the eastern region, while the central and western regions were still affected by the scale level and environmental regulation, reflecting the advantages of the eastern region in terms of economy and technology. In the future, strengthening agricultural scientific and technological innovation and deepening interprovincial cooperation can help further improve the level of green agricultural development. In addition, local governments should formulate more precise local agricultural support policies based on macro-level policies and local conditions.