NTI|bio模拟猴痘全球暴发桌面推演的介绍

Introduction of the NTI|bio tabletop exercise in the global monkeypox pandemic

根据世界卫生组织报告,猴痘疫情出现在非传统流行国家,部分病例无相关流行地的旅行史,因此存在人际传播的可能。在2021年3月17日,美国非盈利组织核威胁倡议协会下的全球生物政策和计划团队(NTI|bio)与慕尼黑安全会议(MSC)共同组织召开一次桌面推演,其目的是减少具有潜在灾难性后果的生物威胁,案例为虚拟的经基因合成、编辑和改造的猴痘病毒。通过介绍本次推演,为相关疫情大流行的防控提供案例和借鉴工具,以应对未来可能出现的各类全球疫情大流行。举措应包括建立公共卫生预警系统等,从而实现早发现、早评估、早处理,同时还需要建立联合评估机制以应对来历不明的高危险生物事件,通过多学科的共同研究和努力形成综合应对措施。

According to the World Health Organization,in the monkeypox outbreaks in non-endemic countries,many cases occurred in individuals with no travel history to endemic countries.This study analyzed a tabletop exercise conducted by the Nuclear Threat Initiative Global Biological Policy and Programs(a non-profit organization in the United States,NTI|bio)in partnership with the Munich Security Conference(MSC)on March 17,2021,with the aim of decreasing high-consequence biological threats.The exercise scenario and critical findings were summarized and analyzed.The exercise model was also reproduced with the SEIR method.In this tabletop exercise,the case was a virtual monkeypox virus,which was genetically synthesized,edited and modified.Measures to address various potential global pandemics in the future should include establishing a public health early warning system to achieve early detection,assessment and treatment.Simultaneously,a joint assessment mechanism to address high-risk biological events of unknown origin should also be established.Comprehensive response measures should be formed through joint research and efforts across multiple disciplines.This study provides an example and a tool kit to improve prevention and response capabilities for global pandemic preparedness.