兼顾风险和成本的中国大豆进口布局优化

Optimization of China’s Soybean Import Layout Considering Risk and Cost

文章构建风险—成本双目标规划模型,利用2000—2020年大豆贸易数据,分析中国进口大豆的优化布局策略。结果显示:(1)中国大豆进口更注重于控制经济成本,相对忽视规避市场风险,进口布局存在一定的优化空间。(2)2017年以来中国大豆进口量已经超过了安全、经济的适宜范围,需要适度控制大豆进口规模增长。(3)从各国最优进口量来看,巴西和美国的进口优化空间呈现此消彼长的趋势,这凸显了稳定巴西、美国大豆进口的重要性,同时也意味着需要致力于挖掘阿根廷、加拿大、俄罗斯等大豆来源国以及巴拉圭、玻利维亚等潜在来源国的大豆产能。(4)美国国家风险增加、巴西出口减少、国内需求增加时,均会加大中国大豆进口成本和风险。因此,中国对内应切实扩大国内大豆与油料生产,对外需要释放稳定的经贸合作预期,保障巴西和美国大豆进口规模的基本稳定,并致力于深挖全球大豆生产和出口潜力。未来需整合构建大豆全球供应链风险评估与预警体系,加强对大豆经贸合作情景的模拟预测,保障以中国为主的供应链体系安全运转。

It’s very important to ensure a stable soybean supply for national food security. Optimizing the layout of China’s soybean import with the goal of minimizing risk and cost is the practical need to ensure the security of soybean supply chain. Based on the soybean trade data from 2000 to 2020 and the risk-cost planning model,this paper analyzes the optimal layout strategy of China’s imported soybeans, investigates the feasibility of expanding the market to potential exporting countries,and simulates the adjustment direction of import layout under the change of international economic and trade pattern. The results show that: 1) China’s soybean import pays more attention to controlling economic costs,relatively ignores avoiding market risks,there is a certain optimization space. 2) Since 2017,the soybean import volume has exceeded the safe and economic scope. It is necessary to appropriately control the growth of soybean import scale on the basis of ensuring domestic demand. 3) From the perspective of the optimal import volume of various countries Brazil and the United States both play an important role in China’s soybean import,which indicates that it should develop more soybean production capacity of importing countries such as Argentina,Canada and Russia,and potential source countries such as Paraguay and Bolivia. 4) The national risk of the United States increases,the export volume of Brazil decreases and the domestic demand increases, which all increase the cost and risk of China’s soybean import. Therefore, it needs effectively expand domestic soybean and oil crops production,stabilize soybean imports from Brazil and the United States in the short term, release the expectation of stable economic and trade cooperation in the medium and long term, and deeply tap the potential of global soybean export. In the future, it is necessary to integrate and construct the risk assessment and warning system of soybean global supply chain, strengthen the simulation and prediction of soybean economic and trade cooperation,and ensure the security of the soybean supply chain system.