省域涉农产业发展指数对农民收入影响及其空间效应

Impact and Spatial Effect of Agribusiness Development on Farmer Income at the Provincial Level

促进农民增收,是实现产业兴旺并达到乡村振兴总目标的首要任务。文章在给出涉农产业发展指数核算的基础上,基于1997—2017年中国省级面板数据,采用固定效应、中介效应及空间误差模型,探究涉农产业发展指数对农民收入的影响及作用机理。研究发现:(1)涉农产业发展指数对农民收入有积极的促进作用,通过带动农民平均工资水平的提升,从而进一步带动农民收入增加。(2)涉农产业发展指数有空间溢出效应,通过影响周边地区涉农产业发展指数间接影响这些地区的农民收入。(3)异质性分析发现非粮食主产区和东部、东北地区的涉农产业发展指数水平对农民收入的影响更大。因此,政府应积极发展涉农产业,优化涉农产业区域分工合作,引导农民参与产后增值环节,拓宽农民增收渠道。

To promote the increase of farmer income is the primary task to realize the prosperity of industry and the overall goal of rural revitalization. Based on the provincial panel data from 1997 to 2017, this paper measures the agribusiness development index,uses the models of fixed effect,mediation effect and spatial error to explore the impact and mechanism of agribusiness development on the farmer income. It’s found that: 1) The agribusiness development index has a positive effect on farmer income by increasing the average wage level in rural areas. 2) The agribusiness development index has spatial spillover effects, it indirectly affects the farmer income in neighbour provinces by influencing the agribusiness development index in neighbour provinces. 3) The heterogeneity analysis shows that the agribusiness development had greater impacts on farmer income in the non-grain-producing regions, eastern and northeastern areas. Therefore, the government should actively support agribusiness development, optimize the regional specializations and cooperation in agribusiness, guide farmers to participate in post-production sectors, and broaden the channels for increasing farmer income.