新一轮农地确权与中国农业增长——基于面板工具变量法的实证研究

The Effects of the New Round ofAgricultural Land Titling on China’s Agricultural Growth:An Empirical Study Based on Panel Instrument VariablesApproach

新一轮农地确权是否有效促进了中国的农业增长?当前有不少文献对确权政策的经济绩效提出了质疑,而众多基于微观调查数据的相关实证研究也没有得到一致的结论。本文收集反映各省份确权完成进度的数据,以新一轮农地确权作为核心解释变量,在使用有效工具变量解决内生性问题的基础上,直接测量了新一轮农地确权对中国农业增长的效应。面板工具变量法的估计结果表明,在不增加其他生产要素投入的情况下,仅此产权制度改革本身即可使中国狭义农业总产值显著增长约1%,如果各省份确权工作自开始全面推进到基本完成的平均用时为三年,那么农地确权本身即贡献了三年农业实际增长的约8%,这在总量上意味着660多亿元的农业产出增长。时间异质性分析表明,确权政策的经济绩效在长期得到了更加充分的展现,其对农业增长的促进效应随时间推移而逐渐增大。

Has the new round of agricultural land titling effectively promoted agricultural growth in China? A number of studies have questioned the economic performance of the land titling policy, and numerous empirical studies based on micro-survey data have not reached a consistent conclusion. This article collects data reflecting the progress of the completion of land titling in each province, uses the new round of agricultural land titling as the core explanatory variable, and directly measures the effect of the new round of agricultural land titling on China’s agricultural growth on the basis of using effective instrumental variables to address the endogeneity issue. The estimation results from the panel instrument variables approach indicate that, without adding other production factors, agricultural land system reform alone can significantly increase China’s gross agricultural output in the narrow sense by about 1%. If the average time from the beginning of full-scale promotion of agricultural land titling to its basic completion in each province is three years, the land titling policy itself contributes about 8% of the actual agricultural growth in three years. This means an increase in agricultural output of more than 66 billion Yuan in total. The analysis of temporal heterogeneity shows that the economic performance of the land titling policy has been better demonstrated in the long run, and its promoting effect on agricultural growth hasgradually increased over time.