2011-2016年中国恶性肿瘤发病和死亡趋势分析及GM(1,1)模型预测

Trend analysis and GM(1,1) model prediction of the cancer incidence and mortality in China from 2011 to 2016

目的:分析2011-2016年中国恶性肿瘤发病和死亡趋势,预测2017-2021年恶性肿瘤发病和死亡情况。方法:基于国家癌症中心发布的2014-2019年中国肿瘤登记年报中恶性肿瘤相关数据信息,分析纳入登记年报的登记点数量变化,利用Joinpoint对数线性模型和灰色预测模型GM(1,1)分别对2011-2016年恶性肿瘤发病率和死亡率进行趋势分析并对2017-2021年恶性肿瘤发病率和死亡率进行预测分析。结果:2011-2016年纳入中国肿瘤登记年报的全国范围内的肿瘤登记点数量从140个增加到487个。2011-2016年,恶性肿瘤发病中标率和世标率呈下降趋势,平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change, AAPC)值分别为-0.86%(P<0.05)、-0.91%(P<0.05);死亡中标率和世标率呈明显下降趋势,AAPC值分别为-2.22%(P<0.05)、-2.19%(P<0.05)。2011-2016年各年龄段发病率和死亡率的趋势变化存在明显差异。灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测2017年中国恶性肿瘤发病率为293.27/105,死亡率为176.92/105。结论:近年来我国恶性肿瘤发病率和死亡率保持相对稳定的高流行状态,肿瘤防控形势严峻,随着我国人口老龄化程度的加剧,中老年人群应作为肿瘤防控的重点人群。

Objective:To analyze the incidence and mortality trends of cancer in China from 2011 to 2016 and predict the incidence and mortality of cancer between 2017 and 2021.Methods:The cancer data of 2014-2019 China Cancer Registry Annual Report published by the National Cancer Center was collected.The number of registries was analyzed.The incidence and mortality trend between 2011-2016 was analyzed by Joinpoint software and annual rate of change(AAPC) was calculated.The incidence and mortality between 2017 and 2021 was predicted by the gray prediction model.Results:The number of tumor registries included in the China Cancer Registry Annual Report increased from 140 to 487 from 2011 to 2016.The trend of age-standardized incidenceby Chinese standard population(ASR China) and by world standard population(ASR world) of cancer between 2011 and 2016 were downward, and the AAPC values were-0.86%(P<0.05),-0.91%(P<0.05),respectively.The age-standardized mortality Chinese standard population(ASR China) and by world standard population(ASR world) of cancer between 2011 and2016 also were downward,and the AAPC values were-2. 22%(P< 0. 05) and-2. 19%(P< 0. 05),respectively.There were significant differences in the trend analysis results of incidence and mortality in each age group between2011 and 2016. The grey prediction model GM(1,1) predicted that the cancer incidence was 293. 27/10~5and the mortality was 176. 92/10~5 in 2017.Conclusion:In recent years,the cancer incidence and mortality remained relatively stable high prevalence,and the situation of tumor prevention and control is serious. With the aggravation of population aging,the middle-aged and elderly should be the key population for tumor prevention and control.