中国气候演变史实研究进展及其对社会发展的基本影响

Research Progress on Historical Facts of Climate Evolution in China and Its Basic Impact on Social Development

基于中国气候演变史实,综述了气候变化或气候波动主要特征及其对社会发展的基本影响。中国全新世可划分为早期增暖、中期温暖、晚期转冷三个阶段,其前两个阶段的明显暖湿性质对中华民族农业文明起源有举足轻重的沃土作用。中华五千年文明史演化进程与暖湿期/冷干期的更替轮回息息相关,政局稳定、经济繁荣的秦汉、隋唐、宋元时期气候温暖湿润,而战事不断、社会动荡的魏晋南北朝、晚唐及明清时期气候寒冷干燥。20世纪的中国全域气温增加趋势明显,降水量增减趋势不明朗;全球气候变化大背景对中国社会经济发展产生的总体影响是“利弊共存、弊大于利”。近40年来,全国气温波动中升高、降水区域分异加重、极端天气气候事件频发是主要特征;参与国际气候合作对社会进步提出了严峻挑战,但也为可持续发展战略实施提供了良好机遇。总之,中国气候演变作用于社会发展以促进为主、阻碍为辅。

Based on the historical facts of climate evolution in China,both the main characteristics of climate change or climate variation and its impacts on social development are summarized.The Holocene in China can be divided into three stages,early warming period,middle warm period and late cooling period,the first two periods of which had played an important role in the ancient origin of Chinese agricultural civilization.The evolution of Chinese civilization over five thousand years was closely related to the replacement cycles between warm-wet period and cold-dry period.It had been well-known that the climate features of Qin,Han,Sui,Tang,Song and Yuan dynasties were warm-wet when the political situation was stable and the economy was prosperous,while the climate features of Wei,Jin,Southern Dynasty and Northern Dynasty,late Tang and Qing dynasties were cold-dry when the war was constant and the society was unrest.In the past century,the temperature had increased significantly over China,but the trend of precipitation increasing or decreasing had been not clear.The overall impact of global climate change on China’s social and economic development is that the advantages and disadvantages coexist,and the disadvantages outweigh the advantages.In the past 40 years,the main characteristics of climate change had been mainly in three aspects,including fluctuating rising of temperature,aggravating regional differences of precipitation,and occurring frequently of extreme weather or climate events.Deserved to be mentioned,participation in international climate cooperation poses a serious challenge to social progress,but it also provides a good opportunity for the implementation of sustainable development strategies.All in all,China’s climate evolution has an irreversible impact on social development promoting the first,and hindering the second.