技术推动、需求拉动与未来产业的选择

Technology Push, Demand Pull and the Selection of the Future Industries

面对蓬勃兴起的新一轮科技革命和产业变革,近年来世界主要国家纷纷出台各种战略和政策对未来产业进行前瞻性布局,而规划、引导和支持的前提是对未来产业进行识别和选择。基于创新的技术推动与需求拉动理论,本文提出,技术与市场共轭演进,共同推动未来产业的发展,需要从技术与需求的双向互动中作出对未来产业的选择,同时考虑一个国家或地区的要素供给条件。从技术供给看,选择未来产业需要考察技术所处发展阶段,通过专利数据分析、专家咨询等方法对未来产业成熟度进行定量、定性评价;从市场需求看,需要考察市场与技术的匹配度、新技术对现有产品的替代能力及是否存在相对确定的新市场需求;从要素供给看,未来产业发展受到一个国家或地区财力、科技创新和产业配套条件的影响。支持未来产业发展的产业政策应兼顾技术推动与需求拉动,并结合未来产业的不确定性特征选择政策工具、支持范围和力度。

Facing the vigorous rise of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, major countries in the world have issued various strategies and policies in recent years to make a forward-looking layout of future industries. The premise of planning, guidance and support is to identify and select future industries. Based on the innovation theory of technology push and demand pull, this paper proposes that the conjugate evolution of technology and market jointly promotes the development of future industries, the future industries should be selected from the two-way interaction between technology and demand, and the factor supply conditions of a country or region should also be considered at the same time. From the perspective of technology supply, we should investigate the development stage of technologies, and conduct quantitative and qualitative evaluation on the maturity of the future industries through the methods including patent data analysis and expert consultation. From the perspective of market demand, we should examine the matching degree between market and technology, the substitution ability of new technology for existing products, and whether there is a new market demand with a high degree of certainty. From the perspective of factor supply, the future industrial development is subject to a country or region’s financial resources, scientific and technological innovation and industrial supporting conditions. Industrial policies to support the development of future industries should give consideration to technology promotion and demand pull, and choose policy tools, supporting scope and strength according to the uncertainty of future industries.