建设全国统一要素市场的综合效应:人地挂钩视角

Comprehensive Effects of Constructing a National-Unified Factor Market: From the Perspective of People-land Match

建设全国统一要素市场是优化要素空间配置、建设全国统一大市场的重要内容。本文在分析土地和劳动力空间错配现状的基础上,利用量化空间分析方法对人地挂钩的综合效应进行模拟。研究发现:第一,随着人口向收入较高的东部地区迁移,东部地区城市发展面临较强的土地供给约束;西部和东北地区城市则由于人口净流出,土地利用效率较低。第二,对于建设用地未达标的城市,提高建设用地供给有利于提高城市人口规模、效率、产出和总效用。其中,按100m2/人的城市建设用地标准,考虑集聚效应、按比例降低制度约束时,调整的88个城市的平均城区人口增长70.44%,城区总人口增长24.64%,全要素生产率平均提高7.10%,总产出提高8.61%。第三,集聚效应的倒U型特征显著,放开制度约束后超大城市规模会收敛到3000万人左右。为此,在“牢牢守住18亿亩耕地红线”前提下,可以通过分类落实人地挂钩、统筹利用城乡和地区之间建设用地、加快推进都市圈同城化等优化人地空间配置,推进全国统一要素市场建设。

The construction of a national-unified factor market is critical for optimizing the spatial allocation of resources and constructing a national-unified market. Based on the current situation of the factor spatial misallocation, in this paper, a quantitative spatial model is adopted to simulate the comprehensive effects of people-land match.The main conclusions of this study are as follows: First, with the migration of labor and population to the eastern region with higher productivity and wage, the development of the eastern cities is highly restricted by land supply;while the western and northeastern cities are low in land use efficiency due to the net emigration of population. Second, for cities with substandard-supplied construction land, the improved supply of construction land is conducive to improving the urban population size, the efficiency, the output, and the overall utility. According to the construction land occupation standard of 100 m~2/person, when considering the agglomeration effect and reducing the institutional constraint level in proportion, the average urban population of the 88 adjusted cities would increase by 70.44%, the total urban population would increase by 24.64%, the total factor productivity would increase by 7.10%, the total output would increase by 8.61% and the wages would increase by 18.82% on average. Third, there is a significant inverted U-shaped feature of the agglomeration effect, and the size of mega-cities would converge to about 30 million people after the release of institutional constraints. Fourth, the impact of the land supply adjustment on the urban growth would be amplified due to the reduction of the institutional constraints and the existence of agglomeration effects, and would be significantly greater than the direct impact. Since the cumulative effect is significantly greater than its direct impact, the difference in urban equilibrium size is small upon the adjustment of the land supply according to the standards of 100 m~2/person and 110 m~2/person. Fifth, the dynamic nature of the urban growth has increased the complexity of people-land match. In an equilibrium, the density is different in cities of different sizes;therefore, it is necessary to improve the land supply elasticity of the central cities and the eastern cities.In order to improve the efficiency of the people-land spatial allocation and promote the construction of a national-unified factor market, it is necessary to follow the principle of “firmly adhering to the red line of 1.8 billion mu of the cultivated land”, to classify and implement the people-land match, to coordinate the use of construction land between urban and rural areas and among deferent regions, and to accelerate the development of the metropolitan area.The innovation of the study mainly involves three aspects. First, the previous quantitative studies on the spatial allocation of factors in China always analyzed the impact of the migration restrictions from the perspective of the hukou system;while this paper focuses on analyzing the impact of the land system constraints on the housing prices, and the urban population growth, as well as its comprehensive effects from the perspective of the supply of the construction land. Second, this study introduces the agglomeration effect into the quantitative analysis model. Compared with the previous studies, it is more consistent with the theory and the reality of urban economy to include the agglomeration effect in the total factor productivity. In this paper, the inverted U-shaped feature of the agglomeration effect is further analyzed, and the results show that the growth of megacities would converge to about 30 million people due to the congestion effect. Third, considering the situation that the institutional constraints are endogenous to the land supply, a quantitative analysis is conducted on two kinds of adjustment based on the institutional constraints, which simulates the comprehensive effects of various scenarios of improving the land supply, reducing the institutional constraints, and including the agglomeration effect.