长江经济带新型城镇化与产业结构升级的交互影响研究

On the Interaction between the New Urbanization and the Upgrade of Industrial Structure in Yangtze River Economic Belt

本研究选取长江经济带11省市2011—2020年相关数据,构建长江经济带新型城镇化指数、产业结构合理化指数、产业结构高级化指数,并分析了三个指数的时空演变规律。通过面板向量自回归模型来分析新型城镇化与产业结构之间的关联效应和影响机制,从而克服变量之间因互相影响所导致的内生性的问题。结果表明:长江经济带新型城镇化、产业结构合理化和高级化水平整体呈现出向好发展趋势;从互动关系来看,产业结构升级有效助推新型城镇化建设,但新型城镇化建设未能有效促进产业结构的合理化和高级化发展,二者之间的整体耦合协调度还较低。鉴于此,本文提出推进以人为核心的新型城镇化建设,优化新型城镇化空间形态布局;强化自主创新,促进省际间创新链与产业链融合发展;加强产业分工合作,构建以核心城市为引领的协同创新的产业分工体系。

This paper constructs the index of new urbanization, the rationalization index of industrial structure and the advanced index of industrial structure of Yangtze River economic Belt by selecting the relevant data of 11 provinces in Yangtze River economic Belt from 2011 to 2020. In addition, it analyzes the evolution of the three indexes in time and space. The panel vector autoregressive model estimation method is used to analyze the correlation effect and influence mechanism of new urbanization and industrial structure upgrading, so as to overcome the endogeneity problem caused by the mutual influence between variables. The result shows that the level of new urbanization, rationalization and optimization of industrial structure has shown a positive development trend on the whole;from the perspective of interactive relation, the upgrading of industrial structure has effectively promoted the construction of the new urbanization, but the construction of the new urbanization has not effectively promoted the rational and advanced development of industrial structure and the overall coupling coordination between the two factors is relatively low. Based on this, this paper suggests as following: 1. Promoting the construction of new people-oriented urbanization, and optimizing the spatial layout of new urbanization;2. Strengthening self-dependent innovation with promoting the cooperation and development of inter-provincial innovation and industrial chains;3. Improving industrial divide and conquer of industries, and building an industrial division system of collaborative innovation led by core cities.