降水时空分布及变化特征分析——以安徽省为例

Spatiotemporal Variation in Precipitation Across Anhui Province

【目的】探究安徽省降水时空分布及其变化规律。【方法】基于1960—2019年安徽省24个气象站点的降水日值数据,采用趋势分析、突变检验等方法分析安徽省降水时空分布特征和变化趋势。【结果】降水量自北向南递增,夏季降水量约占全年降水量的40%;降水日呈“南频北稀”、“山区多,平原少”的空间分布格局,降水量和降水日的高值中心出现在皖南和大别山区域,低值中心位于淮北平原。年降水量呈上升趋势,增加的站点共22个。总降水日呈减少趋势,中、小降水日显著减少,大雨和暴雨的降水日呈增加趋势。安徽省共12个站点存在降水突变年,仅江淮平原和皖南山区的降水量存在潜在突变年。【结论】安徽省降水较为集中,极端降水和洪涝风险存在增长趋势,本研究可为安徽省水资源规划利用及旱涝灾害防控提供借鉴。

【Objective】Global warming is expected to increase the frequency of extreme weather events such as floods and droughts;understanding their statistical characteristics is important for developing mitigation strategies.Taking Anhui province as an example, this paper analyzes the change in its precipitation over the past six decades.【Method】Daily precipitation measured from 1960 to 2019 from 24 meteorological stations across the province was used to analyze its spatiotemporal variation using trend analysis and mutation testing.【Result】(1)Temporally,precipitation in summer in the province accounts for about 40% of the annual precipitation;spatially, precipitation increases from the north to the south, and there are more precipitation and rainy days in the mountainous areas than in the flatted plains. The highest precipitation and rainy days are in Dabie Mountains in the south, and the lowest precipitation is in the Huaibei plain.(2)The annual precipitation in 22 stations has been increasing largely due to the increase in heavy rains over the past six decades.(3)Among the 24 stations, 12 have seen abrupt changes in precipitation pattern, but all these occurred in Jianghuai plain(1969 and 2012)and the mountainous areas(2008).【Conclusion】The precipitation in Anhui province varies spatially, and the probability of extreme precipitations that lead to flooding has tended to increase. These results provide guidance for improving water resource management and developing mitigation strategies to ameliorate flooding and drought in the province.